In World War II, the United States mobilized its industrial base to fight on land, at sea and in the air. If World War III were fought in cyberspace, at least in part, what role would Silicon Valley play? This is just one of the questions explored in Peter Singer’s and August Cole’s new book, Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War.
In the 1980s, Tom Clancy invented the genre of techno-thrillers, writing about secret weapons, like stealth aircraft, long before they were revealed by the Pentagon. But with the Cold War long over, Singer, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, and August Cole, a former Wall Street Journal reporter, reimagine the world of warfare in the age hackers and drones, writing what could be called the first “Post-Snowden” techno-thriller. The Intercept’s National Security Editor, Sharon Weinberger, recently spoke with the two writers about their vision of future war. The interview has been edited for clarity.
The Intercept: Both of you are better known for your nonfiction work on national security. What motivated the move to fiction?
Singer: Fiction for us was a way not only to explore certain what-ifs, but also play out certain pathways, touch certain human themes, and also, frankly, produce a book that we hope is not just informative, but also highly entertaining.
In terms of the what-ifs, you can play with everything, from the big what-ifs — what if the great powers went to war — to what-ifs like, what would be the role of Silicon Valley? What have been the consequences of the Snowden affair in terms of conflict? What does actual cyberwarfare look like?
In terms of human themes, we could hit everything from the issues of choice versus destiny, to playing with certain social changes within the military.
In terms of entertainment, we just wanted to scratch an itch. We’re both authors who work in a nonfiction field, but we love books that range from the old Tom Clancy to World War Z and Game of Thrones.
The Intercept: Let’s start with the basics. What does the future look like? How does World War III start or potentially start?
Cole: The world that we built involves taking some big assumptions and turning them on their head. One of the first is that the communist party will continue to run China. We posited a different kind of regime emergence. We see things like the importance of energy in great power politics — those are very clear lines to today’s world — but we also changed other aspects of them, such that the U.S. becomes an energy superpower, which has downstream implications to the energy industry and in the foreign policy realm.
Singer: The process of researching also shaped the choices of the characters, the villains and the heroes. We went around meeting with the real-world people who might fight in such a war. Some of them are the expected, like U.S. Navy destroyer captains, fighter pilots, Chinese generals, but also the unexpected, the new players in 21st-century life who will probably play in conflict, too. These range from Silicon Valley venture capitalists to private military contractors to anonymous hackers.
That also allowed us to play with the fact that real-world people are not cardboard; they bring lots of different things into the story, which, of course, they do in reality.
For example, the cyber-conflict side of looking at who the players might be — it might be expected players, like military Cyber Command, but you have this wide range of non-state actors out there, from the university-affiliated hacker militia in China to hacktivist groups. I have serious doubt they would just sit aside when a conflict is playing out on this arena. Yet what was fascinating is when we spoke with people. For example, at Cyber Command, they weren’t even thinking about this eventuality.
The Intercept: How did the Snowden revelations inform your thinking about the future?
Singer: In many ways, this is a book that is fiction, but backed by 400 endnotes and written in a post-Snowden world. The impact of it I saw play out in two ways. The first is that there are a wide variety of techniques the NSA was doing against others — as revealed by Snowden — that could be done back against us, or at least other parts of government and business. We are able, in fiction, to play with that scenario. For example, one of the things Snowden revealed the NSA doing was what was jokingly called “the Bigfoot of hacking.” It was using radio waves to cross an air gap. It had long been suspected, and through the documents it was revealed.
Not to give too much of the book away — spoiler alert — but that is a means used against another government agency as a hack at the start.
The second way this is post-Snowden is that it plays with certain changes in American industry, and maybe the mentality today. If there was another great war, it’s not 1941 anymore, so the parts of the American economy that would be key to being mobilized wouldn’t be Detroit; it would be places like Silicon Valley. But, of course, it’s also a post-Snowden world, and Silicon Valley has very different feelings about government [now], so we play with that, too.
The Intercept: I remember, back in the day, there were allegations that Tom Clancy had been receiving classified leaks. Any chance you would be accused of that?
Singer: That’s the amazing thing about Clancy, if you go back to that period. In Red Storm Rising, he’s writing about a stealth plane two years before the Air Force admits it has a stealth plane. It’s pretty remarkable. But we document everything — in one way to prove that this science fiction-seeming thing is real, but also to protect us from being accused of revealing classified information.
The Intercept: The book has real-world story about a Navy blimp hanger. Why is that story significant?
Singer: It’s a remarkable story. Most people in Silicon Valley don’t even know that Silicon Valley started out as a Navy blimp base — Navy aircraft carrier blimp program.
That’s the reality of it. Most people don’t know about the military origins of Silicon Valley, and if they do, they think it has something to do with space or the Cold War. But really it dates back to the last interwar years of the 1920s and 1930s, even to the origin of the name of the town Sunnyvale.
So it’s just a fascinating story, but it also allows us to jump off into this exploration of the weird, but also conflicted history of Silicon Valley with the military. That’s something that starts back in the 1920s, continues through the Cold War to today, and will continue into the 2020s.
I think that is one of the more interesting what-ifs, all the more so because you have this Pentagon attempt, as a recent report put it, “to woo, to court, Silicon Valley.” And it’s not clear that that courtship, to use a 19th-century word, really is going to work out all that well for the 21st-century mentality that Silicon Valley has.
Cole: I think it’s also an interesting corollary to the military importance of the Bay Area. We admit that during World War II, San Francisco was very much indeed a Navy town. That legacy is often lost beneath the digital gloss that exists today. Having lived a lot of my life in San Francisco, and being from the West Coast originally, it’s something I’m familiar with, that there is this real legacy to the second World War that in a kind of quest for newness we forget. But fiction can help make people consider that again and ask that question: what the role might be for these epicenters of innovation in wartime.
The Intercept: Let’s talk about the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the military’s far-out research and development arm. You take DARPA’s brain-machine interface work, which has been going on, actually, in one form or another for several decades, and draw out some of the darker implications, which is just fascinating. Both from a technological and a policy perspective, is that sort of work something that should worry us?
Singer: Every single technology, whether it’s a stone, a drone or the Internet, has been used for both good and bad. The technology that is working on brain-machine interface is being developed for some very positive roles, like helping the paralyzed to move and operate objects with their mind, like a computer. It’s making its way over into video gaming to program the systems-based neurotechnology for emerging therapies, which is basically about using the brain-machine interface technology to aid soldiers dealing with PTSD. The potential manipulation of emotion and memories is an original positive goal, but you can very quickly see how these kinds of technologies might be used and abused, both by our own government and industry, but also, as every technology, they will get out there and others will use and abuse them.
We explore that and it’s one of the themes that I think connects to bigger science fiction mediums of how technology can end up working out in ways you might not expect because it’s always being used by humans. And it also connects to some bigger, fun, memorable science fiction themes of the very meaning of identity, thought, memory.
The interrogation scene where the brain-machine interface is used, for me, is the scariest scene of a book about World War III. It’s pretty crazy when you think about it, but to me, it was by far the scariest, creepiest scene. But that is the reality when you think about some of these technologies that are both wonderful, but also potentially horrifying.
The Intercept: The National Security Agency: How do they figure in?
Cole: The book really highlights the role unexpected actors will have in being decisive. That’s why we really do need to think through how we court Silicon Valley, to use the earlier words. We really understand the role an affiliated hacker group or unaffiliated hacker group might be, a sort of Internet-oriented outfit like Anonymous — that they may be the ones who have a decisive role in the future of a conflict like this. The organizations that are focused on defending, protecting and attacking — the conventional needs maybe outstripped by the progress of technology, but also our adversaries on innovation.
Singer: One of the other issues that is very real is the long-term consequences of the NSA-Snowden affair in terms of the very real anger that’s there among the tech community. Not just in terms of the back doors and feeling taken advantage of, but also the very real monetary cost that these companies have been hit with as a consequence of this — cost that’s not measured in thousands or millions of dollars, but billions of dollars of lost revenue. That’s a legacy that is going to be there for awhile.
The other issue — a larger one that connects to the surveillance debate, but also to geopolitics as a whole — is how we’ve been consumed by certain threats, both real and perceived, that have shifted how our intelligence community operates.
Another way of putting it is that our intelligence community — and our military — has gotten very good at both collecting wide amounts of information, but also going after single individual targets, i.e. suspected terrorist leaders and the like. And they’ve become, as some of the media reports have put it, highly effective killing machines. We could have a debate whether that’s right or wrong or whatever, but the point is that that’s shaped the intelligence community. But it also raises questions of whether this is going to be effective in the different kinds of conflicts that are potentially out there.
I’ve just finished the book, and it’s dreadful. Characters direct from 1950’s central casting, a plot that reads like a press release from the state department, and rampant xenophobia on almost every page.
A whopper earthquake that savages the West Coast, including Silicon Valley and Microsoft and Starbucks Seattle, and the tsunami it causes that drowns and crushes large parts of the Asian coastlines, and/or a really big magnetic pop from the sun that hits earth and worldwide wipes out a lot, if not most, technology, are significant factors what the future looks like — the day after and for decades to come; both of which are pending, according to the best science available.
Oh, and then there’s the fast growing impact of rapidly accelerating Climate Change.
Ouch on all counts.
No offense to Ms. W, but Peter Singer?
He’s worked for both DoD and State? He’s with the New America Foundation, financed by the Peterson Foundation (Blackstone Group founder Peter G. Peterson’s foundation, plus founder of the Peterson Institute, long involved with promoting the offshoring of all American jobs, and the ending of Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid) and the Pew people? (And Peterson has established an Austerity Group within the New America Foundation, spiritually a cousin to Robert Rubin’s group within Brookings (The Hamilton Project — the project to privatize everything), another outfity Singer used to belong to!
Singer’s also a contributing editor to the Bonnier family’s Popular Science. FYI: Everyone in Sweden involved with attempting to extradite WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange to Sweden is financially connected to the Bonnier family (the Swedish equivalent of Rupert Murdoch).
Just cannot believe anything Singer is about . . .
Does the book include a fictionalized account of the effect a Sanders presidency will have? Not THAT would be a post-Snowden world.
” but we also changed other aspects of them, such that the U.S. becomes an energy superpower, which has downstream implications to the energy industry and in the foreign policy realm.”
Lol, for what? A year or two? Three on the outside? Where is this ‘energy’ going to come from that’s going to make the US an energy superpower? Because I don’t see the Powers That Be turning all the bullshit they’ve been churning out into an energy source. Sure they could be, if they took over other countries and usurped THEIR status, though, eh?
If the CPC actually fails, and China is taken over by a fascist state, there is zero chance that any war with America would not end up nuclear.
The image of Major Kong riding the nuclear bomb in Dr. Stranglove comes to mind. It truly is puzzling why so many rednecks are gungho about nuclear war, given the glass house they live in.
China is only 55% urbanized, vs. America’s 85%. Nukes are always directed at population centers. American society is so very leveraged, take out some of the support pegs, the whole thing collapses. Eliminate the TX energy hubs (pipelines, refineries, etc.), there goes 80% of transportation. No transport, no food. Given that everyone has a gun, the problem is much magnified.
The average Chinese consumes 1,500 calories today, but it was not that long ago that they subsisted on (and did so just a short 40 years ago) 500 calories a day. The average American? A glutonous 2,500 calories a day.
Which society can better survive a nuke exchange?
What is needed is a bestseller on a fictional nuclear war and how it affects the players.
Aside from one or two Russian blips, there is almost NO literature on how other countries would function outside of the US, UK, and a couple other English-native countries. I’ve always found that kind of fascinating. While I’m not going to entertain your Chinese theories, and I think you’re grossly oversimplifying to say the least (to suggest that the US and China aren’t interdependent to a great extent especially when it comes to fabrication and outsourcing is pretty remarkable, for instance), I think you’re also sort of forgetting how targeting works in general, and maybe confusing Cold War goals with what might be seen as ‘current goals’. From what I’ve been seeing, the goal is for the US to NOT be first-strike, but to provoke whomever it can to basically provide a permissive environment to respond with whatever it desires to respond with (and that doesn’t need to be, nor do I suspect it would be, full-on nukes).
Star Wars, as such, may never have happened, but there are weapons shields in place, and generally speaking I don’t think a nuclear annihilation in the standard sense is something in the cards. That said, I think the more likely scenario, if things were to go anything like full-on nuclear, would be atmospheric explosions -> EMP (and I believe the math and science have shown that actually it wouldn’t take very many of them to do the ‘job’) to basically take out electronics (which’d also take out pretty much all transportation and leave ‘first world’ countries in dire straits since most of its supply and other mechanisms are now almost totally reliant on microelectronics that’d get fried). I’d also expect if it DID happen that any trace of origin would be unreliable at best, and that it’d most likely only be partially be successful (and in a way that’d be least disadvantageous to the US and more disadvantageous to those in other countries).
All of this is just speculation of course.
Whatever does happen, my strong suspicion is that we are on the verge of a World War that the US may not even know it’s building itself up into or wanting, and that most likely there’s no balance of power left to really have anything for anybody else much to fight with — so maybe it’s just a strategy to oppress people more than even start a war. You can’t have World War without any strong-enough opposing powers (and to suggest that the possession of nukes is oppositional power is to pretty much say a country is willing to be annihilated to fight; few, if any, would be, and I’d venture none are — the US is so vastly weaponed that any attempt at a strike would quickly just result in the opposing party being obliterated, perhaps without any nukes actually succeeding in making it to their targets.
Which basically leaves cyber and economics as the major vectors for any WW3 to occur, as well as things as ‘simple’ as toppling governments while pointing fingers at ‘enemies’ (eg Russia) and creating pockets of continual unrest in all of the places that might create any challenge for an Empire seeking global dominance (and of course, maximising profit).
But I’m just waxing philosophical.
Before he died, right on target, actuarially, Dad told me all he knew how to do well was kill people with his airplane. Now we can do it with a keystroke. Forgive me for wanting us to have a bit more skin in the game, players. If your ass isn’t on fire with radar, then your are not a hero, tame ferret. Just a punch drunk killer counting coup on the way home, Judge Judy.
Who’s gonna Monkey Wrench these frackers? I am seriously sick to death of their fucking knowitallness. They have all the data in the world and still can’t read a fucking list? They don’t put peas in the guacamole, Knudson’s uses potatoes, eye holes. Nice diversion from the real issue, NYTS!!
All of this is happening precisely because people are willing, able, and desirous to see it as a ‘Game’.
Doom as a FPS? Sure. But once they substituted realistic humans for the ‘monsters’ (Doom WADs probably didn’t help) as the enemies, this was never going to turn out well — and especially not after you recruited the same people who grew up on them to be in your military, support that military, and then when they came back gave them jobs in ‘law enforcement’ with all the cool ‘toys’ they could hope for and shit-all for screening.
No understanding of psychology or endocrinology much?
Can we all agree the Target should be the issuer and not the card swiper? Is this a cock fight or a line dance? This place is as hostile as the border between Gaza and Israel, Herman. How about an assist instead of a diss? Can’t resist? Let’s see if we can’t lead VAR around in another circle before we lure him into the swamps, German.
Do I have to chip you a hieroglyph, Hector? Forget looking through the Gorilla Glass, Corning. Check your six, rear view mirror! History is hard to defeat, repeater.
Neither a borrower nor a lender bebop, shebop, you bop, shabop shoowop. Better a Lauper in a sea of purple than a Madonna in a land of virgins?
I understand that life is demanding without understanding, but surely some Girl Scout Cookies are better at room temperature, not frozen in time, however sublime? The coat rack is slack but the hat rack is full, however a fool, such a dandy, still carries on with top hat, sans cane — trips down Candy Land Lane. Clocks are right AT LEAST twice a day, sometimes more often (though by May — too late; fall and spring will always be King, Prince, Dairy Queen — keen? Or mean?).
Lido decks? Bongo drums? Elvis Presley’s rock and roll? Don’t like jazz, but got room for some soul?
Scratch scratch.
Scheiss.
The Wall Street Journal AND the New America Foundation?
I was sold at the WSJ–I mean who doesn’t want to read a “Techno-Thriller” from a WSJ reporter–but combine that with a senior fellow, not just a fellow, but a senior fellow, from the New America Foundation–Hot Damn!
On the upside–The intercept will soon run out of “friends” to promote.
Had it not said FORMER WSJ writer, I’d have had to move on. Murdoch’s not above having his HarperCollins books written by two, piece by hit piece, to release upon the people through his leaky pipe, the Sunday Times…Cameron, Practically a Conservative…how many hits before he caved, Uncle Sam? Too fucking late, GCHQ. I already know the punchlines, Sunday Times.
What I thought, too. Got a copy. Found it very very boring. Plugged away, thinking I only had to get through the endless details of techno-warfare and the thoughtful, provocative, entertaining book would begin. Well, no. Hit Delete page 120.
From the full remarks of a speech given during this last year by NSA IG Brenner and reported on by The Intercept:
“In the wake of Snowden, our country has lost control of the geopolitical narrative; our companies have lost more than $100 billion in business and counting. Collection has surely suffered. The damage from the Snowden leaks to American foreign intelligence operations, to American prestige, and to American power not to mention the damage to morale and to personnel retention right here at Fort Meade has unquestionably been vastly greater than if the Executive Branch had determined from the outset to amend FISA back in 2002 to permit the activities the White House felt necessary to protect the country.”
Your boy Pete’s last response in this interview makes him look a lot like an agency mouthpiece, Sharon, plus marginalizing OUR country’s own terrorist acts with dismissive statements like, “We could have a debate whether that’s right or wrong or whatever…”
This may be the flip side of that Brenner quote:
Brenner’s quote, the one above this, sounds more like blaming the fire marshal for revealing the fire’s origin — and not blaming the arsonist.
Seems more the same side of the coin to me and nuance at best when both the IC and Silicon Valley powerhouses can somehow claim it’s the “Ed affair” causing any damage to respective futures, not their own long-term perfidy. For decades computer companies there lined up to jump at federal contracts. Those same companies or M&A derivatives thereof, that already made and are still making extra billions from participating in that pipeline, probably now scream loudest they’ve somehow been “victimized.” The truth is more likely that most of those biggest players played ball and also lobbied well, and it’s very telling when almost identical buzzwords of third party incrimination and “geopolitical” consequences spill too easily from mouths those supposedly in opposition – to their rather lengthy and mutually profitable relation$hip.
So disappointed to see the name of the book links to Amazon, the big brother agent.
Those dark web torrenters have it out there, I hear.
If I may make a minor quibble, I feel this headline doesn’t give sufficient credit to the NSA. They designed the back doors which will allow our computer systems to be attacked. If the systems were secure, there would be no cyber world war, and no techno thrillers. So I feel the work of the NSA to make those systems vulnerable should be acknowledged in some way.
Snowden’s revelations on the other hand, are going to cause a number of actors to implement defensive strategies to protect themselves from the NSA. So the next cyber war could be a lot more boring than anticipated. I don’t necessarily blame Snowden personally, but the world often doesn’t develop the way that authors of thrillers might hope.
I think you exaggerate. Even if the NSA were exactly what it is supposed to be — the National Security Agency, an impartial defense organization dedicated solely to defending the country, so dedicated to upholding the constitution that people eagerly installed free NSA crypto programs, firewalls and virus checkers on their computers to protect themselves — even then, there would be security problems, because there would still be people whose password is PASSWORD. There would just be fewer problems. We can’t really have a world free of financially motivated computer attacks so long as we have the economic system we do, one which treats information as a commodity that can be owned and leaves corporations under the control of officials with fiduciary responsibility and perspective only. And we can’t have a world free of computer attacks altogether until companies no longer have any motivation at all, whatever the source, to push laptops on people that don’t have a switch to turn off the camera and microphone, TVs that listen to conversations, cars with transponders to track them and update their software… in short, until a paranoid Battlestar Galactica ethos pushes out all potential to gather marketing data.
‘Supposed to be’ according to whom? The function of an agency has no relation to its title, which is just marketing. Instead, examine the agency’s own core secrets which clearly state that undermining security is the agency’s purpose. From Core Secrets
But you don’t have to rely on the NSA’s word, since simple logic will also suffice. Every time a Sony or OPM is hacked, the NSA’s budget is increased. They have a strong incentive to weaken security.
The fact that many people already practice poor security does not negate the NSA’s mission. Someday I may increase the strength of my password from PASSWORD to PASSWORD123. When I do, the NSA will be there to crack it.
Pfft. I ‘cracked’ you a long time ago, son-brother (an Appalachian term of endearment.)! I don’t need no ‘crypto’ password. That little ‘voice’ in the back of your mind is talking behind your back!
*My ‘secret’ weapon: I can sense the slightest human suffering (also I went to the night school of Hard Knocks’… which comes in handy when you’re in a tight spot.)
Little Orphan Annie just told me you never went to her school. For shame, you liar.
But on a less sarcastic/rude note, you don’t prefer Jung?