Democratic and Republican vice presidential candidates Mike Pence and Tim Kaine both advocated for establishing “safe zones” in war-torn Syria during their debate Tuesday night, an indication that whoever wins in November, the U.S. may end up deploying considerable resources — including ground troops — in the Middle East again.
“I truly do believe that what America ought to do right now is immediately establish safe zones so that families, and vulnerable families with children can move out of those areas, work with our Arab partners, real-time, right now, to make that happen,” Pence said.
Kaine responded, “Hillary and I also agree the establishment of humanitarian zones in northern Syria with the provision of international human aid, consistent with the United Nations Security Council resolution that was passed in February 2014 would be a very, very good idea.”
Moderator Elaine Quijano later followed up by asking Pence how a “no-fly zone” (NFZ) would work, but it’s important not to confuse these two concepts. A NFZ is something that would be accomplished mostly through the air, setting up territory where civilians could take shelter from aircraft. “On the whole, it doesn’t necessarily entail a major ground-based deployment in this area itself,” said Melissa Dalton, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ International Security program and a former country director for Syria at the Department of Defense.
By contrast, safe zones or humanitarian corridors, which have a more extensive objective of protecting civilians in a territory from all types of violence — whether it be attacks from the air, artillery and small arms fire, require much more than just an end to aerial bombardments.
“The barrel bombs and air assaults that [Syrian President] Assad has been conducting against his population are terrible, … but when you look at the actual data, most of the actual Syrian civilians who have been killed have been killed by shooting, mortar, artillery and rocket attacks,” Dalton noted. She pointed to data collected by Syria’s Violations Documentation Center and published in The New York Times last September. At that point, over 50,000 Syrian civilians had been killed from attacks emanating from the ground, eclipsing the almost 19,000 documented to have been killed in aerial bombardments.
Dalton explained that a response to that violence would have to take the form of a ground force, likely composed of the United States and allied countries, as well as Syrians themselves.
“You’re trying to create a perimeter area where there can be a free flow of humanitarian resources and perhaps even stabilization resources reaching a population that’s critically at need,” she said. “And you need to have some protection of those civilians. And that could be a mix of partner forces on the ground … and/or substantial numbers of U.S. and coalition forces to protect those civilians. Because there’s only so much you can do from the air to protect folks if there’s going to be a discrete area where they’re going to be able to escape to and flee violence and be protected.”
What the U.S. contribution to such a force would look like is at this point unclear, but U.S. officials have suggested that it would require substantial personnel and resources. In his 2013 assessment given to Congress, then-Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairperson Martin Dempsey said that “thousands of U.S. ground forces would be needed, even if positioned outside Syria, to support those physically defending the zones. A limited no-fly zone coupled with U.S. ground forces would push the costs over one billion dollars per month.”
In February, Secretary of State John Kerry told a Senate panel that the Pentagon has estimated it would take between 15,000 and 30,000 American troops to secure safe zones within Syria.
Writing in the Washington Post, former senior U.S. diplomats Nicholas Burns and James Jeffrey called on President Obama to “consider stronger measures to protect millions of civilians at risk,” including the establishment of safe zones. “Our experience as diplomats suggests that the United States would have to deploy U.S. soldiers on the ground inside Syria along the Turkish border in order to recruit the majority of the zone’s soldiers from Turkey and other NATO allies, as well as the Sunni Arab states,” they acknowledged.
The Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, however, have not acknowledged the extensive commitment it would take to establish these zones.
“I will not send American combat troops to Iraq or Syria. That is off the table. That would be a terrible mistake,” Hillary Clinton said in February, despite repeatedly advocating for a safe zone for Syrian refugees. Kaine has been an advocate of the safe zone approach since at least 2015; that year, he sent a letter to President Obama urging him to adopt the policy.
Trump’s campaign has been all over the place on the issue. Last November, he said he’d create a “big beautiful safe zone” in Syria; in May, the candidate told an MSNBC morning show that he wanted to fight ISIS, not Assad. At a rally in Virginia in August, he reiterated the safe zone idea but said the Gulf States will pay for them. Pence’s statements at the debate on Tuesday mark the first time the campaign has said anything that detailed.
Top photo: A Syrian man sits in the rubble of a destroyed building a day after a barrel bomb attack in Aleppo, Syria, on Sept. 17, 2015.
One more time I’d like to remind you my exceptional Yankee friends. You’re playing with fire now. Most of the planet sees you for what you really are – the Nazis of the 21st century. You gonna reap what you’been sowing since the 2nd big one. This time you breathe some tasteful orange dust. Start playing Fallout games so you gain some urgently needed xp. You ever heard about “good Germans”. Loads of “good Americans” here.
I would like to re-emphasize that there is zero chance that the UN Security Council will authorize a safe zone/no fly zone after Hillary and Obama pulled their bait and switch in Libya to launch an illegal regime change war.
So, all those arguing for a SZ/NFZ are either delusional/lying/or specifically condoning an illegal intervention without UN authorization.
But, something nobody here mentioned…
About two weeks ago US special forces entered northwestern Syria (supposedly on an anti-IS mission) and the “good rebels” chased them out.
The militants we’ve been supporting in our proxy regime change war do not and will not tolerate our presence there.
The idea that the Sunni Wahhabi militants will cooperate and coordinate with our soldiers in such an (illegal) effort is laughable.
They’ll accept our money, they’ll accept our supplies, they’ll accept our weapons and ammunition, but if we put boots on the ground they will target us anyway.
Yup.
Exactly.
Fuck Mike Pence, Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Samantha Power, Amy Goodman, and all the war criminals and propagandists who’ve lied about Syria as the US government has illegally collaborated with right wing dictatorships and terrorist groups to destabilize Syria.
Barbarism in Words and Deeds
http://petras.lahaine.org/?p=2104
Not a dime’s worth of difference. Vote for the only peace candidate, Jill Stein. For information, jill2016.com
Yes, it’s as if Russia believes it has vital interests at stake in Syria. Interests such as their naval facility in Tartus.
What does the U.S. say and do when any parties or nations seem to threaten what Washington believes are our vital interests? What does Washington do when these vital interests actually are attacked?
Interesting response by Russia to this new plan, it’s not being pondered but planned. The Russian response was muted in that it promised to defend Russians and Russian positions but didn’t seem to actually promise to defend Assad directly only with the weapons they supplied Assad with for his own defense.
The comment about their not being able to distinguish between missiles aimed at Assad or their forces may or may not be accurate but it does show that they understand what is coming and therefore what they need to do to avoid being targeted.
It isn’t easy to be both sinister and moronic at the same time, but you’re getting there.
I’m glad Russia was mentioned in the comments. What this article (and most American media) needs is more analysis of US/Russian relations as it relates to Syria (and Ukraine).
@wayoutwest
Your kind of delusional thinking is exceptionally dangerous:
Clinton Ehrlich is an American research fellow at the Moscow Foreign Ministry. Last month he published this in the journal Foreign Policy: The Kremlin Really Believes That Hillary Wants to Start a War With Russia, my emphasis:
Read the entire thing and please educate yourself. What does the United States threaten to do, and actually do, when it perceives its vital interests are at stake?
The extent to which this dangerously-ignorant, dismissive attitude toward Russia (combined with utterly insane demonization of the nation and its leaders) has been adopted by powerful elements of the US establishment and the public in general is just scary as hell.
The notion that Russia can be made to back down or surrender WRT the Syrian crisis, by means of threats and intimidation, is just plain fucking insane — Strangelovian-level craziness.
Yes.
Putin has already backed Russia into a corner in Syria and their intervention has not produced the promised results their propaganda boasted of when this began. The rebels have not been defeated and this bloodbath doubling down to achieve a major victory in Aleppo will be etched into the memories of all Sunni Muslims as another example of Russian imperialism in action.
I would prefer that Syrians decided the outcome of this conflict not Russians, Iranians or Amerikans but this conflict has been hijacked by foreign powers for their own greedy imperialist needs so I have to recognize that reality.
Putin may view the Red Queen as an existential threat to himself but that doesn’t necessarily include all of Russia only Putin’s Russia.
Everything that the US has done or failed to do for the Syrian rebels shows that they wanted a negotiated resolution to this conflict and your wise guy Ehrlich seems to have completely missed that fact. There is no controllable resolution to this conflict if the rebels actually win and conquer Damascus but they needed to project that possibility to drive the Assad regime to accepting a transition government, sans Assad.
Even the plan that appears to be coming now will be aimed at forcing the transition government into existence not ushering in a total rebel victory.
That’s not what Clinton Ehrlich either wrote or meant (and it also makes no sense). He said “Moscow,” and that includes people such as Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov. The editors at Foreign Policy found Mr. Ehrlich sufficiently expert and uniquely positioned to publish his assessment. I’ll take his over yours.
Politicians eventually believe their own euphemisms, but it takes a little time. The trick is to repeat something continuously until you subconsciously accept it as the truth.
But I think we need to cut Pence and Kaine a bit of slack. They’ve only been vice-presidential nominees for several months, so they probably still vaguely realize that safe zones mean a war in Syria. I expect by the time one of them is elected, they will have forgotten that fact and therefore be much more effective salesmen for the war.
I’m not following this logic. Right now there are at least two contenders for volunteer ground troops to hold the “safe zones” that are not American: the Kurds, whose peshamerga are one of the most useful combatants in the country, and the Turks, who are more than eager to hold territory, displace the Kurds, and informally take over portions of Syria where they can shoot captured Russian pilots and otherwise have a great time. Well, clearly, the U.S. could make a deal, doubtless involving money and probably involving fancy weapons, by which one or other of these groups swears they’ll let refugees into a “safe zone” where they’ll be more or less taken care of and hardly ever suffer any extrajudicial executions. So I don’t see how the ground troops are necessary.
That said, it’s still pointless. Right now, Jordan has I think it was a million Syrian refugees on their territory, Turkey has more, and the U.S. could simply offset more of their expenses. Jordan is about as safe as safe gets in the Middle East, and they’re already doing it, so why play some game in Syria? Clearly there is some plan for unnecessary military involvement here … even though there doesn’t have to be.
“Safe zones” are an excuse for the troops and the control of the airspace. They haven’t been able to remove Assad merely by arming and supporting their pet terrorists, and doing a little bombing, so they’ll try something else.
It’s obvious that the term Safe Zones is code for shutting down Assad’s and Putin’s ability to wage war against the people of Syria especially now that it has morphed from the limited Turkish area on their border to the whole country.
Once the Coalition decides to stop Assad from attacking rebels and civilians and the Russians from assisting him there will be tens of thousands of rebel fighters to supply security so there shouldn’t be a need for US or other outside troops except for some Turks in the north. The SAA troops could be redeployed to protect some of the loyalist areas after Assad’s and the Iranian’s control has been severed.
The first stage of this new policy will probably be a massive aerial attack on Assad’s C&C and possibly a decapitation of him and his close advisors. There is no need to directly attack the Russians, they can be warned and Putin knows there is nothing to be gained by actually resisting the new reality.
You are delusional. If the United States attempts to enforce a NFZ against Russian planes we are flirting with WWIII. Russia believes it has vital interests in Syria — what does the United States do when it believes its vital interests are directly threatened?
No flirting with WWIII. Let the Russians bomb hospitals, convoy aids, residential areas.
“what does the United States do when it believes its vital interests are directly threatened?”
It supports Israel even when thousands of civilians are getting killed in Gaza.
I think you should have used “Dr. Strangelove” as your moniker.
A safe zone is a euphemism for the progression of regime change in Syria and more war. It’s the same garbage Neocon policy re-packaged and re-marketed in a new, exciting, bi-partisan and palatable form to the American public. Just because they rolled this shit policy in powdered sugar doesn’t mean we should ignore the putrid odor emanating from it. We certainly should avoid being conned once again into taking a bite out of it and swallowing.
It’s obvious that the demonization and mockery campaign has not only convinced the campaigners themselves, but has worked wonderfully well to separate the minds of the target audience from reality.
Anyone who thinks Russia can be successfully “warned away,” or intimidated into giving up what it sees as its vital assets or abandoning its legitimate national interests, is dangerously misinformed.
Indeed, It is Putin who has been warning the West that it has been playing a game with potentially dire consequences. Unfortunately, Americans, especially, have been so thoroughly soaked in Russophobia, for so long, that they seem utterly unable to pay serious attention.
Big mistake. The jingoists of a nation that hasn’t “won” a war since 1945, despite having the planet’s most powerful and “advanced” military and engaging an endless stream of smaller, weaker opponents, should be more cautious.
Do you really believe that Putin would risk destroying everything he has built in Russia for a minor imperialist holding in the ME? Any military response by Putin to the US actions against the Assad regime would lead directly to a Nuke confrontation which no one can win.
We may not like this new reality that seems to be the accepted doctrine in DC but Putin is not insane nor self destructive and he and the Iranians can retreat to lick their wounds and live to fight another day in another way.
Once Assad is removed from power the Russians might even be needed because of their long time connections with the Syrian government and military and they could protect their bases by assisting the transition government. The Iranians and their foreign troops will be told to leave immediately never to return.
Putin put on a good show projecting Russian imperial power into Syria but just as happened in Afghanistan it will fail for political as well as economic reasons. A country with an economy the size of Mexico, even with Nukes, cannot project real imperial power.
I think — actually, I’m pretty sure that I know — that it is the US and its poodles who are on the verge of risking a war that no on will win and everyone will lose.
Again: If you imagine that Russia can be threatened into backing down in conflicts involving what it sees as its national, even existential, interests, you simply don’t understand the first thing about Russian history and the Russian character.
We had all better hope that Killary & Co. aren’t as frightfully clueless as you are, although the evidence suggests that they are.
The Red Queen may have delusions of war with Putin but her Bankster enablers and the military will limit her options to what suits their needs and agendas. Russian imperialist history is interesting, bloody and quite vile but we are dealing with today’s Russia which faces limits to what it can do no matter how Putin may feel about this reality.
Many anti-imperialists put too much hope in the vague promise of a multi-polar world led by Putin but actually financed by China. The BRICS have crumbled with even China concentrating on their parochial mercantile interests and Putin’s Russia is basically alone in its countering the Hegemon in the ME. Even Iran who are now back in the embrace of western economics have voiced a willingness to support a transition in Syria.
Putin can convince Russians and some other people that the bloodbath he is enabling in Syria for Assad is justified but when push comes to shove I doubt he will receive much support from the Russian people for actions that could destroy Russia and much of the world.
Jesus, but you are a dangerous moron:
People in the faking U$A have little memory and major delusions.
The key word in this article is “Humanitarian.”
When democrats and republicans mouth the words “humanitarian aid”
what they mean is
bomb the shit out of people and destroy nations.
The manufacturing of weapons is the basis of “humanitarian aid”
in the faking U$A.
To imagine it means something else is to ignore at least
the last several decades of history.
“it would take between 15,000 and 30,000 American troops to secure safe zones”
Even without Russia’s presence, it would take a full-scale war to install 15,000 to 30,000 American troops in Syria. The result would be a quagmire like Afghanistan.
Hellary Clinton has a plan to bring life and prosperity to the planet.
And when she says “the” planet… TRANSLATE – the planet owned by wallstreet and managed by her criminal enterprise TPP.
Why cant we have endless war that bankrupts every nation in the world? Makes perfect sense to me.
” in order to recruit the majority of the zone’s soldiers from Turkey and other NATO allies, as well as the Sunni Arab states”
Uhm what? It’s like nobody remembers that Turkey has been actively working on destabilizing Syria for years now. They are looking for any excuse to get their boots on the ground in Syria, even if they have to create that excuse themselves.
2013 The Sarin gas attacks in Syria, a Turkish false flag with the gas being supplied from Turkey. So the US can pull the “They got WMD’s!” card like in Iraq.
2014 They had to censor Twitter and YouTube in Turkey because somebody leaked Erdogans plans for a false flag attack involving Turkish agents shooting RPG’s from Syria into Turkey, serving as a pretext for a Turkish invasion of Syria.
Same deal with Turkey declaring parts of Syria as “their airspace” (with backup from the US) that very same airspace where a Russian bomber ended up being shot down by Turkish air force.
And don’t even get me started with Saudi Arabia, one of the main sponsors of Daesh, they are supposed to set up “safe zones” and US soldiers are supposed to help them?
And that New York Times article about civilian casualties really rubs me the wrong way. If that same report would be about US drone attacks than the majority of those “civilian casualties” would be considered “dead combatants” because they are of “military-age”. That’s probably how they keep the civilian death counts for US air strikes so low.
Max Blumenthal interviewed about his investigative pieces on The Syria Campaign, the White Helmets, regime change in Syria and a No Fly Zone.
Thanks, Mona.
Good interview, folks. Well-worth watching, either before or after reading Blumenthal’s two-parter linked below.
Whichever order you choose, watching and reading both highly recommended.
Of course, setting up humanitarian safe routes out of the areas controlled by even the ‘moderate extremists’ involves much more than deploying troops, given that these ‘moderate extremists’ actively prevent civilians from using the ones the ‘regime’ declares and sets up repeatedly. Indeed, to let the hostages of Allepo flee, the US would have to attack the ‘moderate extremists’ that it is demonizing the Syrians for attacking. But, being the US, when it is doing the attacking, or laying siege, well suddenly the innocent civilians who get hurt and killed in the process of freeing them suddenly won’t be evidence that the forces trying to free them are evil incarnate , nope, they’ll be evidence that the ones holding them are the bad guys.
Article is good but missing Dunford’s crucial reply in Senate testimony to a question of what a NFZ would require: “War with Syria and Russia”. Clinton supports a NFZ, and her confidant Anne-Marie Slaughter justified this even given the likely Russian response in an interview with Der Spiegel (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/anne-marie-slaughter-on-women-in-politics-and-business-a-1079892.html).
“Safe zones” are also extremely risky but not quite as much as a no-fly zone.
The notion that US officials are concerned about civilian casualties of bombardment does not merit comment.
You can’t really have a “safe zone” without a no-fly zone. The former requires the latter.
“War with Syria and Russia” is exactly what this madness would likely mean. And a group of very crazy and powerful people, whose preferred candidate appears headed for the White House, appears willing, even eager, to risk that war, having adopted the bizarre notion that there could be a “winner.”
A pyrrhic victory for the American people is the most likely outcome of DC’s perpetual warfare policy in the Middle East.
I’m not sure it’s the most likely outcome. I think it’s the best possible.
Utter, disastrous defeat is at least as likely.
But, for those who may not remember the origin of the term:
To understand what you see and hear about Syria and the various parties and factions there (and their Western promoters), a recent 2-part piece of investigative reporting by Max Blumenthal is critical. (Most unfortunately, this includes what you see here at The Intercept from Murtaza Hussain.) Why are so many insisting that “true leftists” support a No Fly Zone? Why are White Helmet documentaries, stories and video-clips of child-rescues showing up everywhere, lauding these brave “rescue workers?”
Part I: Inside the Shadowy PR Firm That’s Lobbying for Regime Change in Syria
Excerpt:
Read the whole thing.
Max Blumenthal, Part II: How the White Helmets Became International Heroes While Pushing U.S. Military Intervention and Regime Change in Syria
Wow….thanks Mona for the info……..
The premise of the writer is that any sort of no-fly zone is about protecting civilians and humanitarian goodness. Utter bullshit. The purpose of the no-fly zones is to protect Al Queda and ISIS and to allow them to fight and overthrow the Assad regime. The no fly zones have utterly nothing to do with protecting civilians. The moral arguments are nonsense to divert from the real purpose.
Stepping back, the writer in sense is engaged in an internal debate for Empire. How to create no-fly zones. There is no critique about them, only a discussion about efficiency and implementation.
I’m pretty sure both of the Veep candidates know that ground troops in significant numbers would be required to enforce “safe zones.”
I strongly suspect that, at least, Tim (“Reluctant Executioner”) Kaine and his running mate also know that sending those troops with a mandate to establish and protect “safe zones” would result in the virtually-certain Mother of All Mission Creeps — and that there would be nothing unintentional about that.
The Wicked Witch of the West is a very dangerous person — and I’m sure VP Kaine will be reluctant and tormented as he helps her set the table for grand military misadventures.
HISTORY….that little thing Washington want to forget….
Our Civil War we did not allow foreign powers to interfere…..BUT Washington wants to run the world at the expense of our citizens.s … All the foreign aid they give away comes out of our pockets.. Our WAR CRIMINAL George W. Bush’s war based on lies – Afghanistan, Iraq, now Syria – Libya – Yemen and the rest of the perpetual war – is a war of terror not designed to prevent terror or terrorists…..
> > a 2004 Pentagon-commissioned report specified in listing the causes of terrorism: “American direct intervention in the Muslim world”; our “one-sided support in favor of Israel”; support for Islamic tyrannies in places like Egypt and Saudi Arabia; and, most of all, “the American occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan.” The report concluded: “Muslims do not ‘hate our freedom,’ but rather, they hate our policies.” Countless individuals who carried out or plotted attacks on the West have said the same.
Nobody should need official reports or statements from attackers to confirm what common sense makes clear: If you go around the world for years proclaiming yourself “at war,” bombing and occupying and otherwise interfering in numerous countries for your own ends — as the U.S. and U.K. have been doing for decades……..The release of the massive Chilcot report — by New York Times
Good report.
I do wish that someone would start calling out the use of the term “barrel bomb”, it’s just another “aircraft delivered” bomb, but the value of this term for the US government is that it sanitizes providing far more lethal, toxic and illegal cluster munitions which leave a far longer lasting foot-print: ie: white phosphorus, and spent uranium.
thank you Zaid Jilani for bringing this front and center
A. yes they new safe zones require troops and pretend otherwise. SHOCKING
B. no they did not know safe zones require troops. SHOCKING
it appears the dumb US media are not emphasising the conflict in syria that Hellary started http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/wikileaks-confirms-hillary-sold-weapons-isis-drops-another-bombshell-breaking-news/ which Hellary now wants to turn into a huge money dumping we pay thru the nose rebuild syria like iraq enterprise.
if she isnt the lyingest crookedest dumbest person on the planet, who is.
They discuss the so-called safe-zone, which is actually no-fly zone, missing one simple fact. To do this legitimately, they must have either UN permission or direct invitation from Mr. Assad. No one is expected. If so, intervention of the US and the lapdog forces into Syria is totally illegal. Russia – the main factor – never allows this to happen. You missed Russia, folks ))))