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(U) The World After Saddam - What is Likely to Change
FROM:
Deputy Chief, Strategic Intelligence Issues
Run Date: 07/23/2003
(S//SI) In the first few days of the new SID Leadership Team, the SIGINT Director charged the
SIGINT National Intelligence Officers (SINIO) Council with producing an assessment on how the
most critical intelligence issues facing the nation are likely to change in a post-Saddam world,
looking out through 2004. The SINIO Council Memorandum, "The World After Saddam: What is
Likely to Change," released in mid-July, was the response to Gen. Quirk's tasking. Taking the
basic assumption that the United States, its partners, and their adversaries are operating in a
modern global environment, and that activities or organizations in one region may have roots
that reach far beyond that region, the document examines this CRABGRASS analogy, introduced
at the first SID Town Meeting, hoping to trace the most significant roots and determine how they
have been impacted.
(U) How Has the War in Iraq Impacted the Most Critical Issue Sets?
(S) The SINIOs examined the most critical intelligence issues facing the community and grouped
them into three categories:
Global Threats is the first category - including those two issues that represent the
greatest threat to national security and continue to dominate the DCI's Priority List and
the new National Intelligence Priorities Framework (NIPF) - Terrorism and Weapons of
Mass Destruction (WMD).
The second category is World Order and includes five issues - "Axis of Evil," Regional
Stability in the Middle East, "Coalition of the Unwilling," Role and Significance of
Multilateral Organizations, and Global Economy - that continue to shift and change with
profound impact on traditional alliances and the balance of power.
The third category, Changing Battlefield includes Military Thinking, Information
Operations (IO), and Denial and Deception (D&D;). This category has been the most
profoundly impacted by the war with Iraq and will cause nations around the world, both
friend and foe, to reconsider national defense strategies.
(U//FOUO) Critical Issues in a Post-Saddam World - Implications for SIGINT
(S//SI) The issues listed above are major concerns for U.S. policymakers and warfighters and
will remain of critical importance through the next year and a half, and longer. For each issue,
the SINIO Council has provided an assessment of the consequences for SIGINT in terms of our
need to surge, revise, or maintain our efforts against the major targets that comprise that issue
for the use of NSA senior leadership in determining the best alignment of SIGINT resources
against these challenges. Follow on activities with the Product Line Managers and within the
Data Acquisition organization are already being planned.
(U) Read More:
(U//FOUO) To access a briefing on "The World After Saddam: What is Likely to Change", click
HERE .
(U//FOUO) The SINIOs reside in the Strategic Intelligence Issues office within SID's Customer
Relationships Directorate. For further information, type "go sinio" on Webworld, or contact the
Strategic Intelligence Issues Office and SINIO Council,
.
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108