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(U) Active Analysis: SIGINT That Can Predict
FROM: Beth Walton
Deputy Chief, Advanced Analysis Lab
Run Date: 08/19/2003
(U//FOUO) The quality of our SIGINT analysis has never been more
important to U.S. national security. At its essence, SIGINT is
intended to provide our military commanders and policymakers
with advance knowledge of foreign intentions and capabilities. If we
can deny our adversaries the element of surprise, we may be able
to outmaneuver them and achieve our goals peacefully... and we
can also prevent "Pearl Harbor" attacks from occurring.
(U//FOUO) For SIGINT to be effective in this anticipatory role, we
must not settle for simply describing and explaining facts - we
must interpret the facts and make estimates of likely future events.
To do this, SIGINT analysts must thoroughly understand both the
world of the policymaker/warfighter and the world of our targets.
Not only must we anticipate our customers' needs, we must
anticipate how our adversaries will behave, and where we will find
reflections of that behavior in foreign signals. We call this attempt
to get ahead of the game "active analysis".
(U) Two Approaches to Active Analysis
(U//FOUO) So how should we go about understanding the target?
An active approach to analysis can be based on two separate, but
interwoven, lines of attack: hypothesis-driven and discovery-driven
analysis.
In hypothesis-driven analysis , analysts begin with a
conceptual model of the target's intentions, capabilities and
behavior, and use that model or understanding to make
sense of new intercept, and to determine what tasking
should be.
In discovery-driven analysis , analysts begin with the data
(perhaps as a result of search and survey), and use
anomalies, patterns, or relationships within the data to
create a model or understanding of the target.
While somewhat oversimplified here, active SIGINT analysis
depends on the constant iteration of both hypothesis and
discovery, while keeping in mind the SIGINT customers'
dynamically evolving needs.
(U) Sharing Best Practices
(U//FOUO) For active analysis to succeed in preventing surprise,
we must recognize current best practices in analysis and spread
them throughout the analytic community. Since there is no
textbook to guide us as we meet emerging challenges, it is
essential that analysts carefully document the logic framing their
work, document new information discovered from databases, and
challenge each other to share their "best practices". You can
contribute to the cause by exchanging best practices, using THIS
WEBSITE .
SERIES:
(U) Analysis
1. Strengthening Our
Analytic Capability
2. Active Analysis:
SIGINT That Can
Predict
3. Pattern and Social
Network Analysis
4. Analysis Series:
Follow the People
and Geospatial
Exploitation
5. Deep Target
Knowledge
6. Analysis Series
Wrap-up: Continuous
Learning
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108