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UN Security Council: Round Two of U.S. Draft Resolution on Iraq

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DYNAMIC PAGE -- HIGHEST POSSIBLE CLASSIFICATION IS TOP SECRET // SI / TK // REL TO USA AUS CAN GBR NZL (U//FOUO) UN Security Council: Round Two of U.S. Draft Resolution on Iraq FROM: SINIO for Global and Multilateral Issues Run Date: 10/07/2003 Note from SIGINT Communications: This is the first in a regular series of articles produced by the SIGINT National Intelligence Officer (SINIO) Council, that highlights topics or regions of current interest to the Intelligence Community. (U//FOUO) A few days ago the U.S. reintroduced a draft resolution in the UN Security Council that would provide a UN mandate for Iraq peacekeeping and reconstruction - with the hope that countries will be more willing to provide troops and funds to an effort that has UN imprimatur. A number of viewpoints and concerns have to be reconciled before the resolution can be passed (ideally, in the U.S. view, before an Iraq Donors' Conference in Madrid late this month), and in fact prospects for the draft seem darker than they did when it was initially introduced a month ago. Then, public anti-resolution posturing by France and Germany seemed to be off-set by UN Secretary General Annan's call upon the Security Council to work together on stabilizing Iraq. (U//FOUO) Now, in spite of revisions to the draft, France and Germany continue to express their displeasure - specifically regarding the timing of turning authority over to a provisional Iraqi government -- and have been joined by SYG Annan, who will not put UN personnel at risk in Iraq unless the UN is given charge of reconstruction. (S//SI) SIGINT and State reporting have indicated that no UNSC member wants to go down in history as the one that killed this resolution, and countries are likely to abstain rather than vote it down. The real question, however, is not whether the draft resolution will get passed, but whether it will make any difference in the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq (especially in the case of a tepidly-endorsed UN mandate): --(U//FOUO) Foreign troops problematic: Passage of the resolution could result in a modest rise in the number of foreign troops sent to Iraq because it will provide some political cover to those countries whose publics are hostile to the concept of participating in a U.S.-dominated enterprise - or to those which do not customarily send forces abroad without specific UNSC authorization. But there will not be a big influx of foreign troops into Iraq: some countries have few troops to spare, while others will refuse to send troops into what they see as a hopeless morass. Even those foreign troops that do arrive in Iraq may be more curse than blessing due to linguistic and cultural divides, and their potential dependence upon the U.S. for everything from equipment to intelligence support. --(U//FOUO) Other people's money: Even before introduction of the resolution, a group of potential state and non-state donors had scheduled a conference in Madrid later this month. Many countries may find it more politically feasible to donate money than to send troops to Iraq, but donors will be unlikely to provide more than pocket change relative to the astronomically high ($20-30 billion for next year alone) level of need. By way of comparison, fifty donor countries in January 2002 pulled together $1.5 billion for Afghanistan (with an additional $4 billion in pledges - much of which remains unpaid) - following a U.S.-led war that had significantly greater international support. --(U//FOUO) UN Mandate Does Not Equal Automatic Legitimacy: The UN has a long history of conferring international legitimacy upon assorted interventions and occupations. In Iraq and the wider Islamic world, however, many view the UN itself as the enemy: a U.S. front that perpetrated a sanctions regime and assorted bombings that unleashed widespread death, destruction, and suffering among the Iraqi people. And, the new resolution may be widely seen as window-dressing for a botched Coalition effort, not as true international buy-in. (U//FOUO) A successful resolution will ideally form a long-term basis for international

cooperation on Iraq, and as such it has the backing of top U.S. officials. In the short-run, however, those who equate the resolution with a miracle cure for the Iraq situation are likely to be profoundly disappointed. "(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet without the consent of S0121 (DL sid comms)." DYNAMIC PAGE -- HIGHEST POSSIBLE CLASSIFICATION IS TOP SECRET // SI / TK // REL TO USA AUS CAN GBR NZL DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108

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