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(U//FOUO) What Does the Future Hold? SINIO Forecast for 20062010
FROM: Marilyn J. Maines
Deputy Chief, Strategic Intelligence Issues (S17)
Run Date: 01/08/2004
FROM: Marilyn J. Maines
Deputy Chief, Strategic Intelligence Issues (S17)
(S) As part of NSA's continuing focus on strategic planning, the SIGINT National Intelligence
Officers (SINIO) Council recently produced an assessment on the most critical intelligence issues
most likely to be facing the nation and the SIGINT system during the 2006-2010 time period.
This effort was undertaken to support the Director's Strategic Planning Off-Site in early
December 2003 as well as an upcoming SID strategic planning activity in mid-January 2004.
(U) What will the World Look Like at the End of the First Decade of this Century?
(S) The memorandum forecasts the likely state of the world over the latter half of this decade
and the resulting intelligence issues that will drive intelligence needs in support of US national
defense, homeland security, and foreign and economic policy over that period. It assesses that
the world scene over the years 2006-2010 will continue to be shaped by the threats posed by
international terrorism, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and regional instabilities,
particularly where a convergence of these matters arises. Such a world will be distinguished by
challenges to US economic and foreign policy goals from:
1. the expanding EU and rising states like China,
2. unstable governments in grave jeopardy due to growing economic and social ills; and
3. regional tensions or conflict growing out of ethnic and religious differences and
competition for access to strategic resources, most notably energy or water.
(U) From What Directions Will the Primary Challenges Come?
(S) It is our judgment that such a world is likely to see terrorists conduct a chemical, biological,
radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attack on the United States or its overseas interests, more
involvement of criminal elements in enabling terrorists to penetrate US borders, and continued,
but highly cloaked efforts by potential adversary states to acquire WMD capabilities for their
perceived deterrence qualities. At the same time, these same states and, in some cases,
terrorists will continue their efforts to realize a capability to counter US military superiorityeither through the development or acquisition of an advanced weapons system, to include
offensive information operations capabilities, or through the development of asymmetric
strategies for the employment of existing strike capabilities.
(U//FOUO) Critical Issues and Regions for 2010 - Implications for SIGINT
(S//SI) Six of the most critical areas of concern examined in the SINIO Forecast are distinct
defense and security issues :
1. Counterterrorism
2. Counternarcotics and Organized Crime
3. Combating Proliferation
4. Weapons and Space
5. Information Operations; and
6. Counterintelligence.
Another six focus on global geopolitical or regional matters :
1. Global Geopolitical Issues
2. Africa (Sub-Saharan)
3. Asia-Pacific
4. Europe/Russia/Eurasia
5. Latin America; and
6. Middle East/North Africa/Central and South Asia.
This structure was selected to correlate with the Issue Management Team construct and to
directly support issue management in the SIGINT Enterprise. As the SINIOs and Issue
Management Teams work to identify gaps and prioritize sub-targets both within each issue set
and across the sets, there will be many future opportunities for NSA senior leadership to use this
data as input for determining the best alignment of SIGINT resources against these challenges.
(S) A powerpoint briefing on the key judgments of the forecast is available HERE .
(U//FOUO) The SINIOs reside in the Strategic Intelligence Issues office within SID's Customer
Relationships Directorate. To learn more about the SINIOs and to access a copy of "Intelligence
Issues Forecast for 2006-2010" memorandum, visit the SINIO home page on Web World ("go
sinio") . For additional information contact the Strategic Intelligence Issues Office and SINIO
Council,
.
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108