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(S) China: Modernizing and Mobilizing Its Strategic Strike Capabilities
FROM:
D/SINIO for Strategic Programs and Arms Control (S17)
Run Date: 04/13/2004
FROM:
D/SINIO for Strategic Programs and Arms Control (S17)
(S//SI) China is poised to join Russia as the next country to pose a
mobile ICBM threat to the United States. After two decades of
development, China's Dongfeng-31 (East Wind-31 or DF-31) is on
the verge of batch production. While this 8000-kilometer range
missile cannot target the continental United States, the DF-31 will,
however, be capable of striking targets from Moscow to Alaska.
The follow-on missile, the DF-31A, will have the range to target the
entire United States.
(S//SI) This 12,000-14,000 kilometer range missile has had two
successful flight tests, and further testing is expected.
Accompanying the development of these land-based missiles is
that of the Julang-2 (Great Wave-2 or JL-2) submarine launched
ballistic missile. The DF-31 ICBM is likely serving as a technology
bridge for both the DF-31A and JL-2 programs.
(S//SI) Although China will not produce mobile ICBMs in the
quantity Russia has, China is seeking to establish a credible and
survivable nuclear deterrent, and will likely adhere to its longstanding "no first use" policy. The current ICBM system in China
that can target the United States, the DF-5A, is a liquid propellant
system based in silos. These missiles are considered vulnerable to
attack and less survivable than a mobile system.
(S//SI) Assessments vary regarding the status of the various
Chinese mobile ICBM programs due to different readings of
available intelligence. However, most analysts believe the DF-31
ICBM will be deployed in limited numbers in the next few years,
followed shortly thereafter by the more capable DF-31A ICBM. The
launch platform for the JL-2 SLBM, the 094-class nuclear powered
ballistic missile submarine, is currently under construction. We
expect that the JL-2 SLBM will be deployed by the end of the
decade.
SERIES:
(U//FOUO) SINIO
Council Intelligence
Issues
1. China: Modernizing
and Mobilizing Its
Strategic Strike
Capabilities
2. China: The NearTerm Potential for
Economic, Political,
and Social Crises
3. Al-Qa'ida: An
Emerging NarcoSupported Terrorist
Group?
4. Venezuela's
President Chavez:
Castro's Ideological
Successor
5. Lebanon: Domestic
Crisis Averted, for
Now, in Wake of
Prime Minister's
Resignation
6. SIGINT Monitors
Global Spread of
Avian Flu
(S//SI) China has invested heavily in recent years to build up an
infrastructure to support its mobile ICBM program. New facilities
for solid rocket motor production, general assembly, flight testing,
and deployment have been completed or are still under
construction. China is clearly establishing an infrastructure for long
term and sustainable mobile ICBM production that promises to be a
continued source of concern to the Intelligence Community.
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108