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(U) 'World of 2020' Report Hot Off the Press
FROM: Brenda Martineau
SIGINT National Intelligence Officer (SINIO) for Economics (S17)
Run Date: 12/03/2004
Will the U.S. go into hibernation? Will trans-national corporations rule the roost? (U)
(U) The report "Tackling Tomorrow Today: Alternative Futures and Convergent Technologies of
2020" has just been published. It is the outcome of an Agency-wide outreach to help NSA and
the National Intelligence Council in its "2020 project" to identify importance influences,
particularly in the area of technology, that will shape our world between now and 2020 and
impact on national security. It was produced by the SIGINT National Intelligence Officer (SINIO)
Council in partnership with the SID Planning, Programming, and Performance Office (S01X) and
Toffler Associates.
(U) NSA's involvement included:
hosting a Technology 2020 conference with technology leaders from around the nation;
identifying key drivers;
developing 4 alternative scenarios;
holding numerous outreach sessions and interviews to engage NSA analysts, linguists,
technologists, and managers;
sponsoring a 2020-related essay contest with the International Affairs Institute;
and maintaining an interactive web-site.
(U) With the underlying goal of providing information to identify signposts and minimize
surprise, Tackling Tomorrow Today identifies:
Three Drivers:
Focus : individuals, groups, and nations could be highly cohesive and pay single-minded
attention to a threat or be disjointed with conflicting ambitions and low cohesiveness
Tech-Comm-Plexity : technology and communications could accelerate and interact
creating new opportunities or could stall and society would live on old ideas
Distribution of power, knowledge, and money (PKM): PKM could be concentrated among
elites or could be broadly distributed
Four Alternative Scenarios:
World
TransNational
Corporate
Cowboys
Drivers
Character
Focus is
High
TechCommCorporate interests take a
Plexity is
free hand in shaping the
Strong
international environment.
PKM
Distribution
is Little
Focus is
High
TechComm-
Significant Differences
Corporations dominate business and
politics. Corporations lead "for-profit"
technology revolution.
Self-preservation dominates; Major powers are protectionist and
Don't Tread Plexity is
nations crack down on
on Us
Weak
terrorism after devastating
PKM
attacks.
Distribution
is Little
Focus is
Low
TechCommTechno
Plexity is
Libertarians Strong
PKM
Distribution
is Much
isolationist. Anti-terrorist crackdown
tramples individual rights (sparking
counter-revolutions).
Exponential growth in
Explosive growth in technology.
communications and IT gives
Individuals and virtual teams lead
rise to a new era of
economic boom.
connected individualism.
Focus is
Low
TechCommU.S. steps back from global
U.S.
Plexity is
leadership role; other states
Hibernation Weak
gain relative strength.
PKM
Distribution
is Much
U.S. pulls back from significant world
leadership.Other powers rise in relative
terms.
Six Technologies:
Waiting for HAL: Artificial Intelligence
Bugs with Byte: Biotechnology
Invest Your 401(k): Communications
Achilles or Achilles Heel? Information Security
The World's Spinal Cord: Information Technology
Your Daughter's Army: Military Technology
Hype or Happening? Nanotechnology
Nine Convergences:
Business
Education
Health
Intelligence
Security
Transportation
Warfare
Omnicommunications
Nano-Bio-IT-Cognitive Science
(U) We believe there is tangible and intangible impact from the journey that we have taken, and
the trip does not end here. We welcome your thoughts and insights on the future as we
incorporate what we've learned in assisting in the transformation of NSA.
(U) For more information please access the full report (or type "go NIC2020" in your web
browser).
(U//FOUO) For further information, contact Brenda Martineau, S17,
S17,
, or
S01X,
.
or Marilyn Maines,
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108