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(U//FOUO) Intern Wargamer Peers Into Crystal Ball
FROM:
Cryptanalysis Development Program
Run Date: 02/18/2005
Wargamers look at what the world may be like 15 years from now... Will NSA be ready for it?
(U//FOUO)
(U//FOUO) As a Cryptanalysis Intern, I was recently presented with the opportunity to
participate in the NSA Transformation 2.0 Wargame. The purpose of the wargame was to test
the effectiveness of NSA's Transformation 2.0 Concept of Operations (CONOP) in future
scenarios. Simulated in the year 2020, the game involved NSA personnel as well as many other
Intelligence Community Members, including: FBI, CIA, NRO, NGA, NORTHCOM, etc.
(U//FOUO) The wargame was hosted by NSA/CSS Corporate Planning, Requirements and
Performanace (DC4) in association with Toffler Associates. Although NSA often participates in
planning activities, this wargame was the first time the NSA used scenario planning to test the
Transformation 2.0 CONOP. The simulation involved four different "worlds," or global situations,
for the year 2020. Each world represented a different extreme for variables such as technology,
economy, and terrorism in the future. Each of the four teams looked at a different "world" and
provided Predictive, Operational, and Gap Analyses to the Combatant Commander (COCOM).
The Gap Analysis showed what NSA and the Intelligence Community needed to do between now
and 2020 in order to perform at their best, operationally.
(U//FOUO) Two scenarios were created for each of the four "worlds." My team's first scenario
involved an aggressive nation that planned to invade a land of strategic importance to the
United States. During the Gap Analysis, we determined that NSA and the entire Intelligence
Community needed to successfully produce an integrated "INT" system (HUMINT, SIGINT,
COMINT, IMINT, ELINT, SENSINT, etc). Some main points included a need for: increased data
sharing across the Intelligence Community, SID/IAD integration, continued growth in NSA's
technology, and a review of policy issues. The second scenario focused on how the Intelligence
Community reacted to continuous terrorist attacks on United States soil. The Gap Analysis for
this scenario focused on NSA's policy and role in internal conflicts. Each team provided the
COCOM with an Intelligence Plan for both of their scenarios.
(U//FOUO) During the second day of the wargames, we were asked for ideas and comments
that we had not had a chance to mention the previous day. I noted that potential changes in
cryptology were not addressed. None of the groups mentioned the state of cryptology in the
year 2020 and how this state could affect NSA's production of SIGINT.
(U//FOUO) At the end of the two days, we established key "take-aways" from the four worlds to
present to Deputy Director Bill Black. My "take-away" was that the NSA needed to do a better
job retaining its new hires. Highly technical backgrounds make new hires marketable to IT and
contracting companies. NSA needs to work on keeping the talent it has in addition to obtaining
new talent. The group "take-aways" focused on the need for cooperation across the Intelligence
Community, integration of SID/IAD, and the many policy issues within NSA.
(U//FOUO) Participating in NSA Transformation 2.0 Wargame was a positive learning
experience. I was given the opportunity to work with a group of talented individuals and make
connections that have continued to develop even after the exercise was completed. During this
wargame, interns were able to provide new ideas, skills, and experience to all of the discussions.
I believe there was a consensus that input from a wide variety of people is beneficial for
meetings of this nature.
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108