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(C) In a Nutshell: Defense Watch Conditions (WATCHCONs)
FROM:
Deputy SINIO for Warning (S17)
Run Date: 02/13/2006
(C) WATCHCONS: What Are They?
(C) Watch Conditions (WATCHCON) are a key feature of the Defense Indications & Warning
System (DIWS), whose goal is to provide senior civilian and military decision-makers the
earliest possible "strategic warning" of foreign geopolitical/military developments
which might adversely impact U.S. or Allied interests, and which therefore may
require policy decisions or actions. DIWS operates under the auspices of the Director, DIA,
and Principal Members include DIA, the Unified Commands and USFK; NSA is a very active
Associate Member.
(C) How Do WATCHCONS Work?
(S) A DIWS member first establishes and defines a specific geopolitical/military Warning Problem
to highlight a developing Force-on-Force or Low Intensity Conflict issue. Participating members
then monitor this pre-defined Problem and periodically issue warning reports to policymakers in
the form of Defense WATCHCON Change Reports. These reports employ a series of five
WATCHCON levels (see box) to express a participating organization's "degree of concern," as
well as an assessment of the situation and perhaps a statement of the warning time available.
(C) WATCHCON Levels and
Definitions
WATCHCON I (IMMINENT CRISIS/ CRISIS)
There is an imminent crisis or an actual
crisis.
There is a clear and immediate threat.
There may be no additional warning time.
The maximum available intelligence
resources should be allocated to manage this
Warning Problem.
WATCHCON II (PROBABLE CRISIS)
There is a significant threat leading to a
probable crisis.
Warning time may be limited.
Resource managers should consider
allocating additional intelligence resources to
this Warning Problem.
WATCHCON III (POTENTIAL CRISIS)
There is an increased threat and a potential
crisis.
Warning time may start to become a
constraining factor.
WATCHCON IV (ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS)
There is an environment for the development
of a crisis.
There is an identifiable potential threat in its
early development or latent phase.
WATCHCON V (NO ACTIVE PROBLEM/NORMAL
POSTURE)
There is no active Warning Problem for the
country or region.
The country or region is being monitored on
a normal peacetime basis.
(S) Note that the definitions and scope of these Warning Problems vary considerably
and are not influenced by how important any given regional/ topical target may be in
the broader spectrum of U.S. political/military interests. The Russia/Georgia Warning
Problem, for example, addresses only "Russian military action in Georgia," while the Egypt
Internal Warning Problem is focused on "political instability and civil unrest;" neither Warning
Problem attempts to delve into broader issues regarding these targets which may also be of
interest to our intelligence consumers. Note, too, that while there is no direct connection
between a change in WATCHCON level and the allocation of collection or analytic resources,
WATCHCON levels I and II should prompt resource managers to consider whether their
organization's current level of effort is still appropriate.
(C) The Timing of WATCHCON Reports
(C) There are two main factors which influence the timing of WATCHCON Change Reports:
geopolitical/military circumstances which raise or lower a DIWS member's "degree of concern,"
thereby warranting an adjustment of the WATCHCON level, or the need to replace outdated
WATCHCON assessments.
(U) What's Your Role?
(C) NSA's active participation in DIWS is spearheaded by the SIGINT National Intelligence
Officer (SINIO) for Warning, who researches, drafts, coordinates and releases all NSA/CSS
WATCHCON Change Reports. SINIO/Warning routinely engages relevant SINIO and TOPI
(Target Office of Primary Interest) elements in this process. They play a key role by
providing the necessary depth of expertise, and ultimately are responsible for
determining/approving the proposed WATCHCON level and assessment. Also, they may initiate
the production of a WATCHCON Change Report, based on their understanding of new
developments.
(C) A complete listing of NSA's WATCHCON postures, more information on SINIO/Warning
activities, and links to the DIWS and the National Intelligence Warning System (NIWS) web
pages are available on the web:
NSAnet:
INTELINK:
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108