DYNAMIC PAGE -- HIGHEST POSSIBLE CLASSIFICATION IS
TOP SECRET // SI / TK // REL TO USA AUS CAN GBR NZL
(U//FOUO) Israel's Post-Sharon Policy Prospects: Part 2 -- Iran
FROM:
Assistant SINIO for Near East & South Asia (S17)
Run Date: 04/24/2006
(U) In part 1 of this article, we looked at Israeli prospects with the Palestinians. Now we'll look
at the outlook with Iran.
(U//FOUO) At the same time that Israel was dealing with the loss of Sharon from its political
leadership and the stunning HAMAS election victory, Iran's nuclear ambitions surfaced. Israeli
leaders from all political parties and persuasions commented that a nuclear-armed Iran
threatens Israel's existence and would be intolerable for any Israeli government. As if the
nuclear threat were not enough, Iran's President Ahmedinejad (pictured) has called publicly for
Israel to be "wiped off the map" and referred to the Holocaust as a myth. He subsequently
announced that the "Zionist regime is a decaying and crumbling tree that will fall with a storm."
(U//FOUO) Following Ahmedinejad's threatening statements, Iran announced in early April that
it had enriched uranium to a low level (3.5 percent) and planned to produce it on an industrial
scale. The Israeli government reacted cautiously, reiterating the threat to Israel posed by a
nuclear Iran. Israeli political and military leaders recognized that enrichment, although a
significant step, was still nonetheless a long way away from a nuclear bomb. Tel Aviv indicated
that it intends to continue to work with Europe, the United States, and others in the
international community to resolve the Iranian threat through diplomacy.
(U//FOUO) Rumors abound in international political circles that Israel will act unilaterally to
remove the Iranian nuclear threat as it did with the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981.
Although the Israel Defense Force is capable of conducting a military strike against Iran's
nuclear facilities, executing an effective strike would be difficult. The extent of Iran's nuclear
program is not entirely known, the location of all key nuclear facilities is far from certain, and
known nuclear facilities are dispersed around the country. In addition, the distance which Israeli
aircraft must travel to conduct an attack and the necessary overflight and refueling requirements
pose significant challenges. Moreover, Jane's Defense Weekly recently reported that the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has accelerated a program to protect Iran's major nuclear
facilities by constructing, with North Korean assistance, a defense infrastructure for them.
(TS//SI) Taking into consideration these difficulties, Israel's 1981 pre-emptive strike on Iraq's
Osirak reactor does not serve as an effective model for predicting a possible Israeli strike on
Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel's calculus for launching the Osirak raid was based on accurate
information that ensured a successful strike would cripple Iraq's nuclear weapons development.
Does Israel possess sufficient targeting knowledge to assure a significant blow to the Iranian
program?
(TS//SI) The risk involved in the Iraq strike mission was manageable, requiring only a brief
overflight of Jordan. Israel did not face the risk of retaliation against U.S. forces stationed in the
immediate area, or the risk of inadvertently provoking an engagement with Coalition forces if
OPSEC considerations precluded prior coordination with those forces. Iran's assessed ability to
retaliate against Israeli territory with missiles is greater than the risk Israel faced from Iraq in
1981. Moreover, Iran continues to possess dual-use, chemical and biotechnological facilities
which add to the potential threat. Finally, the political fallout from an attack on Iran's nuclear
program, while the international community still debates Iran's intentions to acquire a nuclear
option, is far greater than the tacit regional applause for Israel's removing the generally
accepted fact of Saddam's threat.
(TS//SI) At this point, it is unlikely that Israel will undertake dramatic moves against Iran, such
as ordering an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Despite the Israeli government's
pronouncements that an Iran in possession of nuclear weapons would be completely
unacceptable to Tel Aviv, there are currently no specific indications that Israel is preparing for
imminent military action.
(U//FOUO) Comments on this topic may be posted on the SID today blog .
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
DYNAMIC PAGE -- HIGHEST POSSIBLE CLASSIFICATION IS
TOP SECRET // SI / TK // REL TO USA AUS CAN GBR NZL
DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108