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(U) Mideast: Complexities of Predicting the Spread to a Regional
Conflict
FROM:
SINIO for the Near East and South Asia (S17)
Run Date: 07/28/2006
(U) In yesterday's article (part 1 of this series), we looked at how
the situation in the Mideast got to this point. What may happen
next?
(U) Having warned Iran and Syria that it will hold all parties
responsible for Hizballah's actions accountable, Israel may take the
opportunity to strike Hizballah's and HAMAS' patrons. While
showing restraint thus far, Israel may punish Syria militarily as
firm evidence emerges showing that Syria supplied Hizballah with
munitions that caused Israeli civilian casualties in the rocket
attacks against Haifa and the north of Israel.
(U) Israel seems to be more constrained to use direct military force
against Iran for the moment. This may owe to logistical issues, or
concern for western equities in expanding the conflict in a dramatic
fashion. However, the Iranian presence in Lebanon, including its
Beirut embassy and alleged Iranian Revolutionary Guards CorpsQods Force and Ministry of Intelligence and Security presences,
could prove "convenient" targets and provide a modicum of
plausible deniability as "collateral damage."
(U) Israeli media reported on 18 July that the IDF had destroyed a
number of Hizballah rockets with a 200-kilometer range, implying
that they had been supplied by Iran. As such evidence mounts,
Israel may become more willing to hit Iranian targets, probably
without seeking U.S. approval.
(U) Women shout slogans while holding a picture of Hizbollah
leader Nasrallah during a demonstration in support of Hamas and
Hizbollah in Tehran (Reuters)
(U) However, regional dynamics, intense international diplomatic
efforts, and Israel's satisfaction that its objectives have been
achieved could prevent the conflict's spreading to include other
players. Israel has expressed its desire to live in peace with
Lebanon. Some Arab states secretly applaud Israel's striking a
blow to Islamic extremists who represent similar threats in their
own back yards.
(U) There is an element of "lip-service" to the level of support that
the Arab states are willing to offer to the Palestinians. Many Arabs
are weary of the Palestinian cause and have provided relatively
little material or financial support to their "oppressed brothers" and
none has offered any sanctuary for the hundreds of thousands of
Palestinian refugees living in squalid camps in Lebanon and Syria.
(U//FOUO) Do you have thoughts on this topic? Post them on the
SID today Blog .
SERIES:
(U) Middle East
Hostilities
1. The Current IsraelHizballah-Lebanon
Hostilities -- What
Caused Them?
2. Mideast:
Complexities of
Predicting the
Spread to a Regional
Conflict
3. Prognosis: 'More of
the Same' for Middle
East Strife
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108