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(U//FOUO) Letter to the Editor : Using Scientific Methods in Analysis
FROM: the SIDtoday editor
Unknown
Run Date: 11/17/2006
(U//FOUO) Here's a letter in response to the article A&P Unveils Strategy for FY07-FY13 :
Comment:
(U//FOUO) Carl Johnson/SID's Deputy Director for Analysis & Production (S2) stressed in a SID
today article that increased efforts must be made to "put analysis first" and ensure that tools,
techniques and knowledge become readily available to the analytic workforce.
(S//SI//REL) Well, since its inception in the mid-20th century, NSA has largely reported
intelligence based on transcription of foreign-language voice and facsimile, telling our many and
varied customers what we know from classified sources. To be sure, the arduous process leading
to product reporting indirectly helped ensure consistency on what ultimately bore the stamp of
NSA. Now, in this post-9/11 era we are continually asked to provide deeper arguments justifying
our conclusions, mindful of incomplete inferences like the "slam dunk" Iraq WMD example. The
scientific tradition may have something to offer here.
(U//FOUO) Those of us who work in mathematics, signals analysis, engineering, algorithm
development, computer science, or physics occasionally contribute a piece of the puzzle worth
reporting in its own right, not only to strengthen intelligence conclusions but to also explicitly
outline what drives our claims. Scientific methods have stood the test of time for half a
millennium, and their entrance into formal reporting can only improve our product.
(U//FOUO) But what should be the vehicle? Last month an e-mail from Thomas Fingar/DDNI for
Analysis , encouraged members of the IC to " share analytic insights as early as possible in a
virtual workspace where analyst contribution is evaluated based on ideas presented. "
(S//SI//REL) Presenting technical articles to SID today -- part of SID's "virtual workspace" -may well be a good way to start. This medium, only available via our secured intranet, offers
opportunities to share "how we know what we know." Admittedly, Oversight and Compliance
issues may need to be addressed, but hopefully not at the price of stifling originality,
independence of thought, and, yes, even technical controversy. Let the marketplace of ideas
judge relative merit.
(U) Science has made much progress by working seemingly paradoxical evidence, even though
Nature neither conceals nor reveals. The same cannot be said of our targets, making our
Indications & Warning mission incalculably more difficult; all the more reason to present
technical arguments supporting inference in an open, transparent, accountable -- and protected
-- medium.
From: Adolf Cusmariu
)
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108