Texas’s GOP Governor Can Arbitrarily Deny Democrats a Seat in Congress Until Next Year

Voters in Texas’s 18th Congressional District have a problem: Their representatives keep dying. First longtime lawmaker Sheila Jackson Lee perished last July, then former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner passed away this month.

Normally, residents of the 18th would get to keep having representation in Congress, but they have yet another problem: The majority-minority district is a heavily Democratic, one of the bluest in the state. And Republicans don’t want another Democratic vote in the House.

“I think we’re in a situation where hardball, partisan politics is going to prevail.”

That seems to be why, for the meantime, following the two recent deaths, the 18th is unlikely get to have anyone in Washington until next year.

Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has a choice about the timing of the election to replace Turner that could prop up House Speaker Mike Johnson’s historically narrow, five-seat GOP majority.

Abbott can either call an election for May 3, for later this year, or for November 4, with the latter date creating a six-month delay in when district residents can pick their representative.

The governor has yet to signal how he will act, but one observer of Texas politics expects him to favor Johnson.

“I think we’re in a situation where hardball, partisan politics is going to prevail,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. “With every vote in the House being precious, Abbott has the ability to provide Speaker Mike Johnson with one more degree of freedom in terms of passing hard votes between now and the end of the year.”

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Timing Is Everything

Turner died on March 5, hours after attending President Donald Trump’s address to Congress and weeks after taking office.

The 70-year-old’s death came only eight months after that of Jackson Lee, a pugnacious progressive known for her support of causes such as reparations and the Black Lives Matter movement.

Under Texas law, Abbott has wide latitude to decide when the special election to replace Turner is held. There are two preexisting statewide election dates he could peg it to: May 3 and November 4. He could also choose another date sometime in between by declaring an emergency. (Abbott’s office did not respond to a request for comment.)

If Abbott decides that the election should be held May 3, Texas law says that he would need to make that determination 36 days ahead of time, giving him until the end of next week to issue a proclamation. Another law, requiring a 10-day candidate filing period before the election begins, means the deadline may have essentially already passed.

Jones said voters should not hold their breath.

“There’s nothing anyone can do after the end of next week to force the governor’s hand,” he said. “There will be some backlash, but it will be backlash among liberal Democrats in Houston. That is not exactly the governor’s constituency.”

Democratic Govs. Kathy Hochul of New York and Katie Hobbs of Arizona have far less leeway under their states’ laws in determining when to hold special elections to replace Rep. Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., who died last week, and Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., whose nomination as ambassador to the United Nations is pending.

Losing Out

If the election to replace Turner is held November 4, that could result in a December runoff under Texas law, giving the eventual victor scant opportunity to legislate this year.

The candidates so far include Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards, both Democrats.

If either is elected, they would continue a trend of Black lawmakers representing a diverse district, where Latinos make up a plurality of residents but Black voters make up a plurality of voters.

Jones said whoever is elected will almost certainly be a critic of Republicans.

“This is an election that will be decided by hardcore Democratic primary voters,” he said, “so a robust opposition to Donald Trump is something that all of the candidates will be promoting.”

Update: March 24, 2025
This story has been updated to include information about a Texas law requiring a 10-day candidate filing period before an election period begins.