AIPAC Strategy Backfires as Progressive Underdog Wins Key House Race in New Jersey

A progressive organizer beat the odds against millions in outside spending to win the special primary election for a congressional seat in New Jersey, offering a promising sign to left insurgents in the coming midterms and revealing a severe miscalculation on the part of the pro-Israel lobby. 

Former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceded the race in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District on Tuesday to Analilia Mejia, former political director for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 2020 presidential campaign, after initial results showed a slim margin between the two candidates for several days.

Mejia won “despite being outspent essentially ten-to-one by not just AIPAC and outside groups but also the New Jersey political machine,” said Antoinette Miles, state director for the New Jersey Working Families Party. Mejia previously led the group, which backed her campaign and helped organize her field operation. 

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“No one would really categorize this district as being a left district,” Miles said, pointing to the race as a sign progressive candidates can connect with voters in more moderate districts. A Republican represented the district until 2019, when former Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen retired and former Rep. Mikie Sherrill was elected. 

With the deck stacked against Mejia and little public polling in the three months since Sherrill vacated the seat to take office as New Jersey governor, there was no clear front-runner in the race. Internal polling in the final weeks of the race showed Malinowski and Mejia pulling ahead and almost equally matched, with New Jersey Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way further behind in third place, according to a source with knowledge of the data. 

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Rather than targeting Mejia, the pro-Israel lobby spent more than $2 million against Malinowski, likely splitting moderate voters, while known pro-Israel donors directed funding in Way’s favor. United Democracy Project, the super PAC for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent on ads attacking Malinowski, and AIPAC donors flooded Way’s campaign with more than $50,000 in the final weeks of the race. The strategy, which UDP said was meant to help them elect the more pro-Israel candidate because Malinowski had previously questioned the provision of unconditional aid to Israel, appeared to backfire, as some observers predicted. 

“This election is a clear rejection of AIPAC by Democratic voters — AIPAC’s spending and support for candidates is becoming a kiss of death in Democratic primaries because of the work our movement has done to expose them,” said Justice Democrats spokesperson Usamah Andrabi. The group did not endorse in the race but said Mejia’s win was a positive sign for the left as midterms progress. 

“This is a clear sign that the Democratic electorate is desperate to elect new leaders — like the dozen of working-class champions we’re supporting in primaries this cycle — that aren’t bought by AIPAC, crypto, AI, or any other corporate lobby that has created the intentionally weak and ineffective Democratic Party failing us in Congress right now,” Andrabi added.

In a statement released on Tuesday, Malinowski pointed to AIPAC’s influence in the race.

“Analilia deserves unequivocal praise and credit for running a positive campaign and for inspiring so many voters on Election Day,” Malinowski wrote. “But the outcome of this race cannot be understood without also taking into account the massive flood of dark money that AIPAC spent on dishonest ads during the last three weeks. I wish I could say today that this effort, which was meant to intimidate Democrats across the country, failed in NJ-11.”

On Friday, United Democracy Project issued a statement signaling it’s still paying close attention to the race ahead of the general election in April. 

“The outcome in NJ-11 was an anticipated possibility, and our focus remains on who will serve the next full term in Congress. UDP will be closely monitoring dozens of primary races, including the June NJ-11 primary, to help ensure pro-Israel candidates are elected to Congress,” UDP said in a statement posted on X. 

Some corners of the Democratic establishment are also reeling from the results of the race. After spending close to $2 million to back Way, the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association has not made any public statements since results started rolling in on Thursday evening. DLGA did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

In an email to supporters on Thursday night, the Democratic National Committee prematurely congratulated Malinowski on winning the race. The release was later removed from the DNC website.

The Democratic establishment hasn’t recently had to run in competitive primaries in the district, Miles pointed out, while progressives had been preparing for this moment. 

“That says something about the shift that is happening in New Jersey right now,” Miles said. “This is the first race — at least at the congressional level — in which there is an open primary, the possibility for better candidates to run, the possibility for new ideas, and the machine is being tested.”