In Praise of Not Knowing

(U) The SIGINT Philosopher: In Praise of Not Knowing FROM Run Date: (U) I have to begin with a complaint. Hopefully, this will not incite a war with our IAD comrades, but my beef is really with IT types. You've ruined a great word. If you Google the word "agnostic" on your SAN et browser right now, you will find the results rife with tech-y terms like these: - The PW storage environment is agnostic - Comcast's - Application layer is bearer (U) so on. In all these uses, "agnostic" means something like "indifferent to." This tech-y use of the word has even snuck out into the common vernacular; a leader once called on to become "geographically agnostic." (U) But that's not what the word means. As the classically trained analyst who sits across from me will attest, its Greek roots literally mean "without knowledge." An "agnostic" in religious terms is someone who is uncertain about God's existence, and who possibly believes the question is unknowable. But that doesn't mean agnostics don't care whether God exists. IKKREL) I ascend this arcane etymological soapbox not just because a word has been abused. Words change meaning in any language, and there's naught I can do about it. But the admission that one does not know something is really an excellent intellecaial exercise. I recall one time, while stationed at SUSLAK, when Ibriefed the South Korean Ministry of National Defense on a North Korean military exercise. The South Koreans had just gotten done giving eleven hypotheses. I explained simply that we weren't sure. The General looked at his and said, "If you don't know, say you don't know like the Americans." The is full of questions to which we do not know the answer. And yet we are smart, ambitious, conscientious people who were hired to answer those questions, dagnabit, and so we go about trying to answer them industriously. We can take one of two approaches. First, we can write our best guesses, and couch them with all sorts of qualifying language. This is the approach some take with North Korea. Although we may know less about North Korea than any country on earth, hardly a day goes by when my "highlights of IE reporting" e-mail doesn't have a North Korea report in it, in which some industrious thinker hasjust pontificated that Kim Jong-Un might be op en to the West because Mickey Mouse appeared in a North Korean parade. Just by volume, you'd think we actually knew a lot about this country. DUO) SA often takes a second approach, where we attempt to address a very small subset of an important question. Say there is an intelligence need (IN) for Zendian economic information. People want to know how the main sectors of the Zendian economy are performing, whether the needs of the people are being met, and what the high-level plans are to direct the economy. Reasonable questions. But SA doesn't have the access to answer them. Their reclusive leaders do not use electromc communications we can target. Their missions abroad use triple pig-L atin and underlying it all is the darn Zendian language that nobody here can even speak. So what do we do? Well, it turns out we can get access to a Zendian gum-chewing manufacturer that has its operations based in the North Pole. So our Zendian Econ team writes 132 reports on Zendian gum sales under the Zendian economic IN. in other agencies are so happy to get

anything, they rep ert that they are grateful fer the rep erting, which leads leadership here te the team is deing its niissien. (UHFDUD) New, I've been in pesitiens befere where I was werking the equivalent ef the Zendian gnni factery. There wasn't much I saw ef use in the cellectien I had te werk with. And if that's yen, and that's where yen find yenrself, yen abselntely shenld try te de seniething rather than nething. Yen're a civil servant, and yen shenld de the best yen can te give valne fer yenr paycheck. (UHFDUD) But it wenld alse be nice fer these labering en these kinds ef n1issiens te have their leaders eccasienally recegnise hew little we really knew?? then, in their understandable desire te keep nierale high and fight fer resenrces, they tend te always fecns en the pesitive: "We get pesitive feedback rep erts freni cnsteniers! Our cnsteniers leve enr stuff!" That's fine, but geing everbeard with this sert ef thing can lead te they have gene craay. ?ccasienally hearing "yea knew, we just aren't able in answer the anesa'ens ear castemers really want" can actually be a refreshing ln't ef henesty. A little (real) agnesticisni wenld really help. (U) This kind ef henesty can help te "rip eff the bandage" and reveal hew difficult the task ef geed intelligence gathering really is. It can prevent threwing geed nieney after bad when leadership believes its current efferts are werking. It alse helps maintain enr ethes as henest, straight-sheeting Americans. (U) But, yen knew, whatever. I'm agnestic te the whele thing. (U) Nete: I realise senie ef yen have great access and really can answer a let ef yenr cnsteniers' qnestiens. Fer yen, just knew that I hate yen, and click en ever te a recent Signal Neise.