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NSA: Responsibility 3B: Implications of Technology & Geopolitical Trends

Aug. 15 2018 — 6:02p.m.

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(U) Responsibility 3B: Implications of Technology & Geopolitical Trends The overall classification of this documen t is SECRET//COMINT //REL TO USA, FVEY DerivedFrom: NSA/CSSM1-52 Dated: 20070108 DeclassifyOn: 20291123 SECRET//COMINT//REL TO USA, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZL

SECRET //COMINT // REL TO USA, FVEY POC : (U, Executive Summary of Geopolltlcal Trends for 2011-2016 (U) Background : (S// SI//REL) The SINIOs identified 34 geopo lit ical trends that are likely to take place and to have broad impact upon SIGINT efforts against a number of targets in 20 11-20 16. These trends will bring a set of new challenges and opportunities that cou ld require changes in SIGINT posture and development of new approaches in order to address them successfu lly . The 34 geopo litical trends were assessed against traditiona l factors used by the Warning community-probab ility, impact to the U.S. and its allies , and relative importance in compar ison with current importance- in orde r to prioritize the trends. (SI/REL TO USA, FVEY) Key Judgments •The global landscape over the years 2011-2016 will continue to be shaped by strateg ic threats posed by international terrorism fed by the growing spread of extrem ism, weapons of mass destruction (WMD ) with focus on a growing number of nuclear asp irants, and regiona l instabilities, particularly in the Middle East, Afr ica and South Amer ica, where shifts in traditiona l power and new balances are likely to emerge . ·Challenges will play out somewhat differen tly than in the past. The wor ld of 2011-2016 will be distinguished by increas ing challenges to U.S. econom ic and fore ign policy goals, as the impact of the current global economic crisis creates future ripples and growing energy secu rity and climate change concerns , with close ly related env ironmental cha llenges . Alternative energy sources , whi le deve loping substant ially dur ing this period , are unlike ly to be commerc ially viab le by 2016 . Additiona lly, seismic shifts in globa l governance are likely to occur as newer economically influential organizations and alliances like the Associat ion of Southeast As ian Nations (ASEAN ), Gulf Cooperat ion Counci l (GCC ), and Brazil, Russ ia, India and Ch ina (known as the BRICs) begin to cha llenge long-es tablished existing structures , such as the Internat ional Monetary Fund (IMF), Wor ld Bank and Wor ld Trade Organization (WTO ). ·Demograph ic factors , particularly the continued growth of the disenfranchised youth bulge in South Asia and the Near East and a rising coalition of anti-U.S. actors in key regions of the wor ld, will challenge U.S. autho rities . This time period is also likely to see the further rise of non-state actors taking on funct ions and roles previous ly reserved for nation states . ·Net-centric threats to the U.S. will also increase as more and more adve rsaries and deve loping states - especia lly Asian and Middle Eastern nations - gain greater access to the Internet and to cyber-attack tools . Th is access will be faci litated by the increased ava ilability of low-cost compu ters and soph isticated cybe r intrusion/hacking too ls and techniques. Third Wor ld states, non-government entities , terrorists and other bad actors can readi ly download attack too ls and the globa l reach of the Internet ensures that attac ks can originate from anywhe re in an instant. Trad itional cybe r actors such as China , Russ ia and Iran will also rema in strong th reats. ·Strateg ic military challenges , posed by China 's cont inued modernizat ion of its weapons and ove rall military capabil ities, Russia's increas ing power projection and military modern ization efforts , and increased intelligence operations against the U.S. by a number of states , may begin to erode the U.S.'s current status as sole globa l superpowe r. SECRET //COMINT // REL TO USA, FVEY

SECRET//COMINT//REL TO USA, FVEY (U//FOUO) Table: Prioritized List of Geopolitical Trends for 2011-2016 (This matrix is classified S//REL TO USA, FVEY in its entirety) Priority Trend 1 Global Energy Security 2 China Military Modernization 3 Computer Network Exploitation Programs Threaten U.S. Information Systems 4 Disenfranchised Youth Bulge Leading to Political Instability 5 Extremism in Pakistan/Afghanistan 6 Nuclear Weapons: More Aspirants, Less Risk 7 Coalition of Anti-U.S. Actors in the Middle East and Beyond 8 Global Economic Stability 9 Middle East Peace/Stability 10 Russian Military Power Projection/Modernization 11 Terrorist Threat to European Countries 12 Risk to U.S. Homeland From Extremist Networks in Canada and UK 13 Global Food Security 14 Ubiquitous Computing 15 Nuclear Power Growth and Monitoring Challenges 16 Persistent African Islamic Extremism 17 Aging Autocratic Leaders in Middle-East 18 South China Sea: Energy and Potential Conflict 19 Growing Cyber Capabilities among Third World and Non-State Actors 20 Continued Decline in al-Qa’ida’s Power and Influence 21 Influence of Countries of Strategic Concern in Latin America 22 Internal Challenges Threaten Indian Strategic Influence 23 Impact of Presidential Elections in Key Latin American Countries 24 Prospects for Arms Control 25 European Union Accession (Central and East European States) 26 Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs on the Decline 27 Decentralization of Terrorist Activity; Rise of Small, Independent Cells 28 Turkey as a Regional Power 29 Democratization of the African Continent: Gradual Decline of Autocracy 30 Future of the United Nations and International Political Order 31 Climate Change SECRET//COMINT//REL TO USA, FVEY

SECRET//COMINT//REL TO USA, FVEY (S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Key Drivers/Consolidated Geopolitical Trends for 2011-2016 (alphabetical order)  Access to Energy and Resources. Continued supply problems, and shortfalls in access to conventional energy sources (oil, gas) will have a significant impact on many developed states (U.S., China, India, Europe) resulting in fluctuating energy prices that will impact the global economy. Global food shortages could lead to possible rioting and political instability in countries of concern to the U.S. Expanding focus on nuclear power will prove insufficient and could bring accompanying proliferation monitoring concerns. Alternative energy sources based upon two lines of development—commercializing existing alternative power technologies (e.g. wind and solar) and investigating new alternative technologies (e.g. fusion power will grow as limits on petroleum production become more severe.  Global Governance and Economic/Political Order. Demographic factors, particularly the continued growth of the disenfranchised youth bulge in South Asia and the Near East and a rising coalition of anti-U.S. actors in key regions of the world will challenge U.S. authorities. Continued shifts in international financial markets towards newer economic organizations and alliances (ASEAN, Gulf Cooperation Council, BRICs) will challenge existing structures—IMF, World Bank and WTO. The changing nature of multinational organizations, including the United Nations and the European Union, and the increased role of non-state actors in global affairs, as individuals and organizations take on functions and roles previously reserved for nation states, will transform traditional balances of power.  Net-Centric Threats. Cyber threats to the U.S. will increase as more and more adversaries and developing states --especially Asian and Middle Eastern nations – gain access to the Internet and master increasingly sophisticated cyber intrusion/hacking tools and techniques. Increased availability of more capable computers at extremely low cost, making computer technology increasingly available to third world and non-state actors, could serve as a potential game changer in the divide between “haves” and “have nots.” Increasing access to virtual environments (gaming/video) offers increased opportunities for use by adversaries for operational applications. This trend will challenge U.S. ability to protect critical systems and infrastructures. Radical Extremism/Terrorist Threat. The U.S. homeland will face an increased terrorist threat due to the spread of Islamic extremism, which will be exacerbated by a demographic youth bulge in Middle Eastern and South Asian countries, as well as an increasing danger from growing Muslim immigrant populations in Europe and Canada. It is likely that al-Qa’ida’s power and influence will continue to decline in this time frame with a growing trend towards decentralization of terrorist activity and an increase in the number of small, independent terrorist cells. Regional Stability and Influence. The replacement of aging autocratic leaders in the Middle East, a gradual move away from autocracy towards democratization in Africa, the rise of authoritarian leaders in Latin America, Middle East peace or lack thereof, and changing composition of the European Union will present both new challenges and opportunities for U.S. foreign policy. India and Turkey both face internal challenges to their regional influence. As traditional balances of power shift, the emerging global landscape will take new and more complex forms, with some new centers of power increasingly opposed to the U.S. Strategic Military Challenges. China’s continued modernization of its weapons and overall military capabilities, Russia’s continued flexing of its military muscles, and increased intelligence operations against the U.S. by both states, may begin to challenge the U.S.’s current status as sole global superpower. More nations will attempt to develop nuclear weapons in order to gain global status and attention and to deter potential adversaries, as state chemical and biological weapons programs decline in numbers. Future arms control agreements will be critical in this period as many existing treaties come to the end of their terms. The threat of non-state actors gaining access to nuclear weapons must be considered. SECRET//COMINT//REL TO USA, FVEY

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