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Regional Command Southwest Intelligence Report June 19 2011
May. 18 2015 — 12:07 p.m.

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Periad Covered 18000 19 June ta 11'590 20 June 2011
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Page 1 of 11 SEE Ta use. MAID 2011

SECRET//FGI GBR//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AOI
(U) Pakistan After the UBL Raid: Status of U.S. Relations and Internal Strife
(SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO)
•
Pakistan continues to suffer from the destabilizing affects of civil unrest and international criticism in the
wake of the 2 May Bin Laden raid.
•
In addition to strained U.S. relations, Pakistan is experiencing a strong backlash from extremist organizations
who feel the Government of Pakistan is weak and complicit with Western Powers.
(SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO) Analyst Assessment: Pakistan continues to suffer from the destabilizing affects of
civil unrest and international criticism in the wake of the 2 May Bin Laden raid. Key officials from U.S. and Islamabad are
undergoing reconciliation talks in an attempt to reaffirm commitments to counterterrorism operations and regain trust.
Alterations to U.S. monetary aid will be extremely sensitive for Pakistan due to their current poor economic status and
will greatly irritate the current situation. Pakistan’s military will take little to no action to prevent the Taliban from
operating in Southern Pakistan along RC(SW)’s border, largely due to their focus against more volatile extremists in
Central and Northern Pakistan. The only way Pakistan will action Taliban elements in Southern Pakistan is if they feel
they are a threat to the nation’s internal stability, something that current Taliban networks in Southern Pakistan are
aware of and avoid.
FOCUS ON THE ENEMY
(U) The Safean Area of Lashkar Gah Municipal Center
(SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO)
•
The Safean area of Lashkar Gah is exploited by insurgents due to its lawlessness, lack of GIRoA influence, and
value to the insurgency by being close to the Municipal Center (MC).
•
Insurgent commanders and fighters have utilized Safean to stage for Close Quarters Attacks (CQA) and to
conduct planning, coordination, and staging for Suicide IED (SIED) attacks against the MC.
(SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO) Analyst Assessment: As the Lashkar Gah security transition approaches, Safean will
likely be a key area that insurgents will try to exploit in order to retain access to the MC for executing attacks. However,
extending development projects and GIRoA presence into the Safean area would have a positive, lasting effect on local
nationals’ support for GIRoA, which would essentially degrade the Taliban’s ability to utilize the area for attack planning
and staging.
FOCUS ON THE POPULATION
(U) The District Community Council and Voter Registration Impact in Garm Ser District
(SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO)
•
The Garm Ser District Community Council (DCC) will expand to represent the entire district.
•
District Executive Officer (DEO)
•
The DCC elections will be held on 22 June, offering a chance to solidify this spring’s gains and tie Southern
Garm Ser firmly to GIRoA.
Page 2 of 22
organized a successful voter registration drive.
SECRET//FGI GBR//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO
2011

SECRETHFGI GERHREL TO USA. ISAF. MAID
ADI
[Ui Pakistan After the UBL Raid: Status of LLS. Relations and Internal Strife
Written on .20 June 2:011:
TU USA, ISAF, HATDI Executive Summary:
In Pakistan continues to suffer from the destabilizing affects of civil unrest and international criticism in the
wake of the 2 May Bin Laden raid.
- In addition to strained U.S. relations, Pakistan is experiencing a strong backlash from extremist
organizations who feel the Government of Pakistan is weak and complicit with Western Powers.
TU USA, ISAF, Fluent Pakistan Attach
After 11 September 2001, U.S. relations 1 -
with Pakistan became critical to enabling -
U5. and CF operations in Afghanistan.
Despite a mutual agreement to ?5
prosecute a 1War on Terror centered on 1 Afghani?an
al-Claida and the Taliban, tensions
between the two countries have ebbed I I
and flowed, primarily over Pakistan?s i 5-
tacit, and sometimes active, support to I
extremist organizations, including the
Taliban. While Pakistan has commonlyI - 'l
voiced discontent with CF drone strikes I
along the border; the 2 May Pakigtan
raid into Abottabad, Pakistan against
Usama Bin Laden has greatly strained India
US. - Pakistan relations. The raid
against Bin Laden led to international
criticism of Pakistan's military
involvement in counterinsurgency
I I ISECFIETHRELTCI LISA,
operations, followed by accusatlons of
the Inter?Service Intelligence Agency
providing intelligence that aids militant groups' ability to maintain influence in Afghanistan. As a result of Pakistan's
inaction and suspected affiliations, the U.S. passed a bill that limits aid to Pakistan. The US. normally provides annual
military funding to Pakistan in order to strengthen their counterterrorism campaign. However, LLS. of?cials believe
Pakistan's government has used this monetary aid to improve their defense against India by advancing their nuclear
capabilities rather than increasing their counterterrorism efforts. In mid June, legislation was approved by the House
Appropriations Committee for this yea r?s defense budget, stipulating that PS percent of the $1.1 billion in U.S. aid will be
withheld until Pakistan reports to the LLS. Congress on how the monetary aid is to be used. Following international and
domestic criticism of Pakistan military's counterterrorism efforts, General Kayani, the Pakistan Army Chief, cut the
number of U.S. troops stationed in Pakistan and halted US. training programs for Pakistani soldiers. Furthermore, in
early June, General Kayani reiterated a common complaint by Pakistan, telling U.S. commanders that drone strikes in the
tribal areas near the AFG-PAIE border we re not acceptable under any circumstances.
Inna
vii-1
'51.
TD USA, ISAF, In addition to strained relations, Pakistan is experiencing a strong backlash
from extremist organizations who feel the Government of Pakistan is weak and complicit with Western Powers. As a
result, persistent attacks throughout Pakistan have begun to raise suspicion as to whether the Pakistan military has
become complacent or incapable of conducting effective counterterrorism operations. Attacks by Tehrik?e Taliban
Pakistan and other groups that seek to conduct operations against the Government of Pakistan and the U.S. in
retaliation for the killing of Bin Laden, have been on the rise. {in 22 May, approximately ll] to 15 militants infiltrated the
Page 5 of 11 cameo To usa, ISAF. NATO sou

SECRET//FGI GBR//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO
Mehran Naval Station in Karachi, Pakistan. These militants initiated
an attack that lasted approximately 18 hours, resulting in the
destruction of a P 3C Orion aircraft and death of 10 to 12 Pakistan
military personnel. On 1 June, heavily armed militants besieged a
remote Pakistani post in Peshawar, Khyber Agency, killing at least
one policeman. The Pakistan Army was forced to launch attack
helicopters to prevent the 40 man outpost from being overrun.
Later, on 12 June two separate suicide bombers detonated in an
area of Peshawar that is home to political offices and army housing.
The first explosion was reportedly small and used to draw in police
officials and first responders for the second bomber, who drove into
the area on a motorcycle packed with approximately 22 pounds of
explosives. This coordinated attack resulted in the 34 killed and
approximately 100 wounded (results of this attack did not specify
between civilian, military personnel, or government officials).
Though no insurgent group has taken responsibility for the attack
yet, the incident was rumored to be in retaliation for U.S. raids
against Bin Laden.
Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
(U) The TTP formed from a number of Islamist
groups present in the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA) in resistance to the Pakistani
State. Formed in December 2007, their ultimate
goal is to enforce their interpretation of Sharia law
and instate Islamic rule. There is no clear
leadership affiliation between the Taliban and the
TTP, although both harbor a desire to attack U.S.
troops. TTP has claimed responsibility for the 1
May 2010 failed Times Square bombing.
However, TTP still almost exclusively targets
Pakistani government and security infrastructure
within Pakistan to further their goal and forego
any pact with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
(SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO) Analyst Assessment: Pakistan continues to suffer from the destabilizing effects of
civil unrest and international criticism in the wake of the 2 May Bin Laden raid. Key officials from U.S. and Islamabad are
undergoing reconciliation talks in an attempt to reaffirm commitments to counterterrorism operations and regain trust.
Alterations to U.S. monetary aid will be extremely sensitive for Pakistan due to their current poor economic status and
will greatly irritate the current situation. Pakistan’s military will take little to no action to prevent the Taliban from
operating in Southern Pakistan along RC(SW)’s border, largely due to their focus against more volatile extremists in
Central and Northern Pakistan. The only way Pakistan will action Taliban elements in Southern Pakistan is if they feel
they are a threat to the nation’s internal stability, something that current Taliban networks in Southern Pakistan are
aware of and avoid.
(Philadelphia Inquirer, House Panel Votes To Slow Down U.S. Aid To Pakistan, 20110615;
Philadelphia Inquirer, Pakistan Ties Vital, Say Mullen And Gates, 20110617; Financial Times, US Defends Support For
Pakistan, 20110511; Atlanta Journal-Constitution, CIA Chief On Visit To Repair Ties With Pakistan, 20110611; Arizona
Republic (Phoenix), Blasts Kill 34, Injure 98 In Pakistan, 20110612; McClatchy Newspapers, Afghanistan-Pakistan Peace
Commission Meets, 20110611; Washington Post, Pakistan's Top General Asks U.S. To Divert Aid To Civilians, 20110610;
Wall Street Journal, Pakistani Army Pleads For Respect, 20110610 Wall Street Journal, Karzai To Press For Pakistan To
Back Peace Talk, 20110609; Boston Globe, US Strikes Kill 23 In Pakistan, 20110609; Washington Post, Pakistan Relations
Reach A New Low, 20110616; SAP20110601012001; SAP20110618114008; SAP20110618950055)
Page 6 of 22
SECRET//FGI GBR//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO
2011