Who’s the Real Bully of the Middle East?

A tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Iran announced Monday appears to be holding. President Donald Trump made the announcement after unilaterally dragging the U.S. into the conflict and authorizing strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites using 30,000-pound bunker busters. 

Israel attacked Iran on June 13, just days before Iran and the U.S. were set to resume talks in Oman over the country’s nuclear enrichment program.

“ You don’t have to be anti-war to understand that diplomacy in this case would’ve been better,” said Hooman Majd, an Iranian American writer and the author of three books on Iran. Majd is a contributor to NBC News and covered the 2015 Iran deal for the network. 

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This week on The Intercept Briefing, Majd joins host Akela Lacy to discuss what’s left of the path to diplomacy after years of sabotage, from Israel’s aggressive military posture to Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.  

The deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aimed to stop Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons development. Majd says that the incentive structure of the deal included increasing transparency, access, and inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites and reintegrating the country back into the global economy: What “Obama recognized was, ‘Look, if you guys make this deal with us, your incentive to not build a bomb is very clear. …  Inflation will go down. Your people will be happier. The economy won’t be suffering the way it is. Sanctions will be lifted. You’ll make money from oil sales. We’ll have international companies coming and investing in Iran.” 

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In 2018, during his first term, Trump pulled out of the agreement and now, after authorizing military strikes, has obliterated what little trust remained. “The problem here is that with the Trump administration having once withdrawn from the nuclear deal that was working, and having now agreed to Israel attacking Iran, and then attacking Iran itself — there’s no trust in diplomacy anymore on the Iranian side, and that’s understandable,” says Hooman. 

Trump is reportedly set to resume talks with Iran next week. But will the ceasefire hold — given that Israel has repeatedly broken its own truces with other countries, and Trump’s own volatility? Is a diplomatic solution still possible? 

Majd says it may take leaning more into Trump’s personal ambitions, “The only way it could be over, and this is unlikely, is that the U.S. under President Trump makes a deal that makes Mr. Trump, very happy, puts him along the path to his Nobel Peace Prize. And he, who’s the only one right now, can prevent Israel from attacking Iran again.” 

You can hear the full conversation of The Intercept Briefing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.