How Biden Is to Blame for Israel and the U.S.’s 12-Day War Against Iran

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 25: U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office at the White House on July 25, 2024 in Washington, DC. Netanyahu's visit occurs as the Israel-Hamas war reaches nearly ten months. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) — President Joe Biden meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on July 25, 2024, in Washington. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Almost exactly 10 years ago, as the U.S. was the cusp of sealing a historic agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program, Barack Obama offered a warning to those who were working to tank the accord: “Let’s not mince words: The choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy and some form of war — maybe not tomorrow, maybe not three months from now, but soon.”

Obama struck the deal in 2015, but less than three years later, during President Donald Trump’s first term, the U.S. unilaterally violated the agreement. After a short time, the deal was dead.

Then came the war Obama had predicted. This month, Israel unleashed barrages of missiles, bombs, and drone attacks against Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and residential neighborhoods. Iran undertook retaliatory strikes at Israel.

It would be easy to lay the blame this war almost entirely on Trump and Netanyahu.

The U.S., after an apparent feint at diplomacy, then entered the fray, making a massive bombing run against Iranian nuclear facilities — and raising the specter of an all-out regional conflict or, worse, a world war. Thankfully, U.S. involvement was limited and, after 12 days of exchanges, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire.

It would be easy to lay the blame this war almost entirely on Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For decades, Netanyahu has sought to ensnarl the U.S. in a direct war with Iran — and in Trump he seemed to have found one, just as Trump acquiesced to Netanyahu’s catastrophic demand that the U.S. tear up Obama’s Iran deal.

While this is indeed true, it risks letting off the hook the people who could have restored Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran and helped avoid this new nightmare scenario.

Some blame for the war, for the dead civilians, and for the instability wrought on the lives of people in the Middle East belongs to President Joe Biden.

Biden, who served as Obama’s own vice president, squandered the chance to correct course and avert the crisis unfolding today.

Blown Opportunity

When Biden came into office in 2021, he had a laundry list of Trump excesses that he pledged to undo in his effort to restore normalcy. He made good on some of those promises — ending policies like the travel ban and returning to the Paris climate accord with the stroke of a pen on day one of his presidency.

Biden’s commitment to return to the Iran nuclear deal, his advisers said, would be more complicated. The new president and his team suggested that a precondition for a U.S. return would be for Iran to address steps it had taken to expand its nuclear work in retaliation for the U.S. violating the accord, rather than the U.S. simply restoring its own compliance with the obligations it had violated. This prompted weeks of back and forth and took time off the negotiations clock that neither party could afford.

The delay didn’t only affect prospects for a deal itself but had a wider effect on regional politics. Many observers thought the new administration understood the need to move swiftly to restore the deal before rapidly approaching Iranian presidential elections that summer. The elections could return hard-liners who had vigorously opposed the nuclear deal back into power.

Understanding as much, Biden was sure to seize the initiative — and wouldn’t fall for the advice of those arguing the president should “use Trump’s leverage” to force a “better deal.” Surely, Biden wouldn’t bide his time and allow opponents of the deal to tie his hands.

Rather than urgently restore U.S. commitments under the agreement, however, Biden ordered that his advisers “keep the Middle East off his desk” as he focused on his domestic agenda.

Advisers like Brett McGurk, who has been advocating for and celebrating America’s entry into Israel’s war on Iran on CNN over the past two weeks, dutifully complied. Negotiations started, but they were circular, undermined by congressional hawks and Israeli sabotage — including a 2021 Israeli attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility just as negotiations were finally getting underway.

Ultimately, Biden’s team missed the window for a deal.

Ultimately, Biden’s team missed the window for a deal before a harsh critic of the original nuclear agreement was sworn in as Iran’s president. Iran’s nuclear program advanced by leaps and strides, with Iran becoming capable of producing enough enriched material for a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks.

By the end of Biden’s term, his advisers were not debating a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue but rather were debating their own military strikes on Iran to set back its program.

The nuclear crisis — imminently resolvable under Biden — was instead made worse throughout his term in office and then handed to Trump, who acted wisely at first in engaging in nuclear negotiations with Iran but eventually caved to Netanyahu.

Now, hundreds of innocent people have been killed, destruction has been wrought in Israel and Iran, and we are much worse off in terms of Iran’s capabilities — and intentions — than we were 10 years ago.

One Way to Limit Iran

Time will tell if Trump will embrace the diplomacy-first leadership he briefly demonstrated earlier this year, or if he will hew closer to Biden’s feckless deference to Netanyahu.

The latter course brings tremendous risks — like dragging the U.S. into an endless campaign of sending in more and more bombers to “mow the lawn” in Iran because the diplomatic options, like Obama’s deal, have been left in tatters.

At the time of his nuclear deal, Obama was attacked by hawks for “kicking the can down the road” because it merely set back Iran’s nuclear capabilities by 15 years.

Flash forward to today, and those same figures are cheering for Trump’s military strikes on Iran as some decisive victory, even though most estimates say Israel and America’s 12-day campaign only set Iran’s nuclear program back by as little as a month.

And unlike Obama’s deal that imposed permanent restrictions and intrusive inspections over every element of Iran’s enrichment program, Trump administration officials including Vice President JD Vance acknowledge that the bombing did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program but did drive Iran to move its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a secret location.

The lessons here are clear. Obama was borne out. The only demonstrable way to concretely limit Iran’s nuclear program is through diplomacy. To fail at striking a deal is to risk war — possibly another disastrous American war in the Middle East.

We should hold everyone to account whose limited imaginations — whose inability to take needed steps in the face of pro-Israel pressure — prevented a nuclear deal. If we are to learn the lessons of this 12-day war, that list must include Joe Biden.