Hofeller Redistricting Narrative State by State 2011

California – (53 seats – partial Section 5 state – Commission Control) Because of a 53-seat delegation, and that this is the first time for a newly enacted commission process, this State clearly needs to be among the first tier to be watched and assisted by the GOP’s national redistricting effort. The stakeholders within the State have somewhat active, but the commission process has been somewhat successfully co-opted by the Democrat-control executive branch and is being staffed primarily by Democrat or liberal operatives. The Commission itself is divided into three blocs (Democrat, Republican and all others), and each must separately approve proposed maps. The application of the commissionprocess criteria, combined with the extremely bipartisan gerrymander presently in place will, most likely cause numerous pairing of two or more incumbents from both parties. All these factors have a good chance of causing the process to end in a deadlock, forcing the line-drawing into the hands of the California Supreme Court. The RNC can give guidance to all or stakeholders and assist in drafting of alternative maps to be presented to the Commission and, in the case of deadlock to the California Supreme Court. We can also assist GOP members of the congressional delegation in formulating their redistricting strategies. Experts clearly disagree on the partisan effects of “good government” map. Since the GOP has a low base of voters in this state, a “break even” with prospects of additional swing districts would be expected. Texas – (36 seats – gain of 4 seats – full Section 5 state – GOP control of statutory process) Texas was one of the most litigated states in last decade’s process. It was not until the legislative redistricting process deadlocked and was thrown into the hands of the GOP-controlled commission, that the GOP was able to take back control of both houses of the Legislature. We were than able to set aside the unfavorable court-ordered remedy plan for congressional districts and enact a more favorable map, dismantling the vicious Democratic gerrymander created in the nineties. Even that process was difficult, resulting in extensive litigation which forced further modification of the GOP plan because of a Voting Rights Act (VRA) violation. The RNC was extensively involved and we expect that to be the case this time. Texas, however, should be able to fund its own litigation expenses, but will require some assistance in litigation strategies and briefs. Expect the GOP to take 2 of the new seats and make its incumbent seats safer. Florida – (27 seats – gain of 2 seats – Partial Section 5 state – GOP control of statutory process) An initiative approved in last November’s election has cast considerable confusion into the process in Florida. Ambiguities in balancing VRA issues with the new criteria mandated by the initiatives present a real challenge to the GOP majority. All redistricting experts expect extensive litigation in this state, as was the case last time. The Democrats fully expect big gains in both the Legislature and congressional seat if they can successfully overturn GOP maps and substitute court-drawn plans in their place. The RNC was intensely involved in both the line-drawing and litigation phases of this State in 2001, and we expect this to be the case this time. Given the changes in the process, it may be difficult for the GOP to take both of the new seats. New York – (27 seats – loss of 2 seats – partial Section 5 state – split control) Because the GOP managed to take back control of the State Senate by a very thin margin, it is expected that a bipartisan deal will be struck giving the GOP full control of State Senate line-drafting, and the Democrats full control of the Assembly process. In the past, the congressional process has initially deadlocked, but then resolved by

the two parties in the face of court threats to impose a map highly unfavorable to both parties’ incumbents. The RNC is already playing a role in litigation over the adjustment of prison populations, a process favorable to the Democrats, and expects to have a further role in congressional line-drafting. The GOP will do well if they only lose 1 seat. Pennsylvania – (18 seats – loss of 1 seat – commission control of legislative redistricting and GOP control of statutory congressional process) There was important litigation in this State last cycle and it can be expected again. The Democrats felt they were badly stung last time and will fight for better results this time. The RNC is already involved, and expects to assist in both line=drafting and litigation. Given the fact that some of our presently-held seats are weak, the GOP will be hard pressed to make the Democrats “eat” the one-seat loss. Ohio – (16 seats – loss of two seats – GOP controlled commission for legislature and GOP control of statutory congressional process) – The legislative remap should proceed without too much difficultly. Congressional redistricting will be a significant challenge because of the State’s loss of 2 seats. The GOP will have difficulty in forcing the Democrats to take the hit for the 2-seat loss without significantly weakening some GOP districts. The RNC has already been involve with legislative leadership in resolution of database issues and development of legal strategies. Georgia – (14 seats – gain of 1 seat – full Section 5 state – GOP control of statutory process) Last cycle Georgia was the site of extensive litigation in which the RNC played a major role. This litigation unarguably was the major factor in the GOP’s takeover of that State’s Legislature. The RNC expect to play an extensive role this decade. The GOP should be able to claim the 1 new seat. Michigan – (14 seats – loss of 1 seat – limited Section 5 state – GOP control of statutory process) The GOP regained control of this State just in time for the remap. Last time there was litigation in which the RNC took part. We expect limited involvement this time. The GOP should be able to force the Democrats to loss the 1 seat. New Jersey – (12 seats – loss of one seat – commission control) So far the commission process for legislative redistricting is unfolding better than last decade. The Chairman of the Legislative Commission is considered to be a level-headed, even-handed person, unlike the liberal Princeton professor who was, at best, euchred into accepting a very successful pro-Democrat gerrymander of the legislative remap. The tiebreaker for the Congressional Commission has not yet been selected. There was important litigation over the legislative remap last cycle and litigation is still possible this time because a new VRA ruling in North Carolina which would have overturned the present map. The RNC had to intervene in the process last time to backstop an unprepared GOP, which is clearly not the case this time. We only expect to be peripherally involved in litigation this time. The expected result is that each side will lose a seat – with one new toss-up seat being created. Virginia – (11 seats – full Section 5 state – split control of statutory process) Virginia is a “first out of the box” state and all expectations are that it will be very ugly. Because of 2011 elections for seats in both the State Senate and House of Delegates, and the need for Section 5 preclearance, redistricting is on a fast track. This could end up being the first big test of the role we can expect from the Obama Justice

Department, with effect reverberating throughout the nation. Deadlock is clearly possible – with litigation on both the state and federal court level. The RNC is already fully involved. Expect a status quo result at best. Arizona – (gain of 1 seat – full Section 5 state – commission controlled) The commission process in this State resulted in a decade-long litigation process which finally ended in 2009. Litigation has already started and we can expect more. The GOP is resource poor in this state and will need assistance to be successful. The RNC was heavily involved last time and should expect to be so this time. A good redistricting would give us 1 new seat, although it could go the other way with an additional GOP loss. Oklahoma – (5 seats – GOP statutory control) Oklahoma had litigation last time which was successful for the GOP. Redistricting should go smoothly this time, although they might need some help getting going with their technology. Illinois – (18 seats – loss of 1 seat – Democrat statutory control) Illinois is the only state with a large GOP delegation that the Democrats control. They can clearly be expected take full advantage, especially in unraveling the bi-partisan gerrymander created last time. If the Democrats are careful, and do not violate Voting Rights Act and one-person/one-vote requirements, it will be difficult to challenge the map in court. Limited RNC involvement would be expected except for VRA analyses and litigation support. Expect significant GOP losses in this State. North Carolina – (13 seats – Partial Section 5 state – GOP statutory control) Last cycle the Democrats were in full control and gerrymandered both the legislative and congressional maps. A highly successful litigation process was executed by the GOP which limited the extent of the legislative gerrymander and allowed for the successful takeover of both houses. The RNC was extensively involved, along with the former RNC Redistricting Counsel, after McCain/Feingold forced the RNC to limit its role. The congressional districts, however, remained extensively gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats – a problem we should be able to remedy. The legislative redistricting process is the most complex in the nation, however, and the RNC is already very active in this state – in terms of database development, line-drawing and legal counseling. The State Party, at this time, has very limited resources to support this effort. Look for large GOP gains in congressional seats in State as well as our being able to shore up our legislative chamber majorities. Indiana – (9 seats –GOP statutory control) The GOP should do well in this state with few problems. The RNC is somewhat involved – particularly in the legal strategy. Look for marginal improvement in GOP seats. Tennessee – (9 seats – GOP statutory control) The GOP has taken full control of this process, has experienced players involved, and should only require minimal assistance. Look for the GOP to strengthen its recent gains. Minnesota – (8 seats – split control of statutory process) This state will almost likely end up deadlocked and have court ordered districts. They have already requested RNC technical and legal assistance. We should be prepared to support the litigation effort if it develops. Look for status quo.

Missouri – (8 seats – loss of one seat – commission process for legislature and split control statutory process for congressional remap) The GOP is cautiously optimistic that they can peel away sufficient Democrat votes to override a gubernatorial veto of the congressional map. This state is well prepared, but might require RNC litigation assistance if the congressional map ends up in deadlock. Look for a possible Democrat loss if the GOP gets its preferred plan or for a marginal seat to replace one seat from both parties if a deadlock goes to court. Wisconsin – (8 seats – GOP statutory control) Since the GOP completely controls the process and there is no change in congressional seats, redistricting should go well in this state – unless the drafters create a VRA Section 2 problem. The State is well prepared and the RNC should only have to give minimal assistance as requested. Colorado – (7 seats – Democratic influences control the legislative commission process and the congressional statutory process is under split control) Last cycle there was complex litigation which might have been more successful had proper litigation funding been available. There is a high probability of deadlock on congressional line drawing. Resources are tight and the RNC expects to be fully involved. South Carolina – (7 seats – gaining 1 seat – full Section 5 state – GOP statutory control) This state has its process fully under control and will require little assistance from the RNC. Expect the GOP to pick up a new seat. Kentucky – (6 seats – split control of legislative process) Because of elections not occurring until 2013, Kentucky will not complete is legislative redistricting until the end of next year’s session. Congressional redistricting will take place this year or early next to be in time for the 2012 congressional elections. Kentucky did not take place in the Census Bureau’s program to have its precincts entered into the TIGER mapping file. Because of this Kentucky may require assistance in getting its data ready and getting fully on line to draw lines. Litigation may be possible. Event will dictate the level of RNC involvement. Expect a status quo congressional redistricting. Louisiana (6 seats – loss of one seat – Full Section 5 state – split control of the statutory process, although that may change to GOP after a special election in the State Senate) Due to the loss of population in Orleans Parish, this State presents some difficult Voting Rights Act issues. There is ample line-drawing talent in the State although litigation support may be required. Expect the GOP to lose one seat, as the lone Democrat seat is protected by the Voting Rights Act. Nevada (4 seats – gaining one seat – split control of statutory process) There is a strong possibility that Nevada may become deadlocked. Some RNC line-drawing support and litigation support may be required. Look for the Democrats to gain at least one toss-up seat. Utah (4 seats – gaining one seat – GOP control of statutory process) This State should prevent few difficulties. Little RNC involvement should be required. Look for the new seat to be GOP. If the Republican select to divide the Salt Lake City area between four districts, the GOP may gain yet another congressional seat.

Washington (10 seats – gaining 1 seat – commission control) This commission process has not previously offered great difficulty and RNC involvement should be minimal, unless requested. It is difficult to predict whether or not the GOP will gain another seat, or be able to make its present seats safer. Alabama (7 seats – full Section 5 state, GOP control of statutory process) The is the first time in modern redistricting history that the GOP has been in control. There are database issues, as the Democrats made few preparations. We should expect litigation. The RNC is already involved and we should expect to stay involved – both in the line drawing and litigation process. Expect the GOP to solidify its present seats. Oregon (5 seats – split control of the statutory process) If legislative redistricting deadlocks, the Secretary of State, who is a Democrat, gets to draw the map. If congressional redistricting deadlocks, it will go to court. Because the State has no change in the number of seats, it is also possible that the incumbents will work out a least changes map. The GOP stakeholders are poorly prepared and the RNC has already invested considerable resources in the process, and expects further involvement. Iowa (4 seats – loss of 1 seat – split statutory control) We do not expect a deadlock in this state as the legislative service department will produce up to 3 sets of maps, which the Legislature will likely accept. Iowa has a rule requiring congressional districts to be comprised of whole counties, so the plan with the smallest deviation show be enacted. We might see what can be done, but expect little involvement. Kansas (4 seats – GOP statutory control) Kansas is not well advanced on it preparation, but a database is being prepared by Magellan. There was litigation last cycle over congressional deviation issues. We do not expect this to reoccur this time. Kansas may, nonetheless, require a minimal amount of legal and technical assistance. Expect a status quo outcome congressionally. Mississippi (4 seats – full Section 5 state – split statutory control) Mississippi has always been affected by Voting Rights Act issues and these are expected the time too. There is a high probability of deadlock for both legislative and congressional redistricting. The RNC was heavily involve last cycle, and significant involvement should be expected unless deadlock is avoided. Nebraska – (3 seats – GOP control of statutory process) We expect little movement in the congressional lines and do not expect significant RNC involvement. New Mexico (3 seats – split control of statutory process) The RNC was extensively involved in this State last cycle and we expect the same this time. It is most likely that both legislative and congressional redistricting will be deadlocked with litigation support required. New Mexico has limited resources instate and will be asking for assistance. Expect a status quo congressional map. Maryland (8 seats – Democrat control of statutory process) Absent any serious mistakes, we can only expect the Democrats to do their worst. The RNC will lend support due to the proximity of the state.

Massachusetts – (9 seats – losing 1 seat – Democrat control of statutory process) The GOP, as in Maryland can expect the Democrats to draft whatever plans they wish. The GOP cannot lose any congressional seats. Expect little RNC involvement. Connecticut – (4 seats – split control of quasi-legislative process). Expect a status quo congressional map with little change of litigation. RNC involvement will be minimal. Arkansas – (4 seats – Democrat control of both legislative and congressional process) GOP stakeholders do assert, however, that there is room for compromise on line-drawing. The RNC is already providing technical and legal assistance, and we expect further involvement. Look for some marginal improvements in our 2 new congressional seats. West Virginia – (3 seats – Democrat control of statutory process) GOP stakeholder are attempting to challenge this state’s multi-member district scheme, which unfairly penalizes the GOP. The RNC is assisting with technical and legal support. Do not look for a congressional map favorable to the GOP. Remaining 12 states – Seven of these states contain only one congressional district and will not receive a high level of RNC attention unless it is requested (Alaska and Delaware have done so). The remaining five are 2-district states and little conflict is expected over congressional redistricting. Rhode Island, Hawaii and Idaho have requested help and we will do what we can. Alaska has interesting Section 5 issues with Native American populations which will require some legal assistance.